Independent monitors have warned that the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) political settlement is on the brink of collapse due to eroding trust between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). Fractures within the MILF and government tensions are turning cooperation into confrontation, threatening past peace gains. The watchdogs urge immediate action to restore trust and address key issues like stalled decommissioning and election delays.
The joint statement from Climate Conflict Action (CCAA) and the Institute for Autonomy and Governance (IAG), released on February 25, 2026, highlights a deepening crisis in the BARMM peace process. "The Bangsamoro political settlement is on the brink of collapse. Trust is rapidly eroding between and among the Parties. Hope is under siege by betrayals from both sides," the statement said, as conveyed by CCAA communications manager Louise Marie Lara.
Established seven years ago under the 2018 Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), the BARMM region has seen cooperation dissolve amid internal MILF fractures and government tensions. The watchdogs noted that the crisis was foreseen a year earlier, with stalled decommissioning of combatants and weapons, alongside political gridlock. Ten years after the 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB), the normalization process remains inactive, allowing illicit arms to proliferate.
A recent incident underscores the risks: In late January 2026, Mayor Akmad Ampatuan of Shariff Aguak town, Maguindanao del Sur, survived an attack involving a rocket-propelled grenade that struck his armored vehicle, injuring two security personnel and a civilian. Authorities later killed suspects in Barangay Meta, Datu Unsay, recovering a rocket launcher and firearms. The attack is suspected to stem from political rivalry possibly linked to former rebels; Ampatuan had offered testimony in the 2009 Maguindanao massacre case.
Election delays further erode legitimacy. Originally set for 2022 but postponed due to COVID-19, the parliamentary vote faced additional shifts after the Supreme Court excluded Sulu in 2024 and struck down districting laws in 2025. A January 2026 law prompted the Commission on Elections to suspend March preparations, with Congress considering a September vote.
The interim Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA), led by former MILF figures like Ahod “Al Haj Murad” Ebrahim and current chief Abdulraof Macacua, faces allegations of corruption. "Corruption at this scale is not merely a governance failure, it is a direct assault on the peace process itself," the statement added.
CCAA and IAG call for adherence to CAB and BOL, enhanced oversight, weapons control, and no further delays to prioritize political transition and curb rising violence and extremism.
