Carolina Manucci warns of decline in Argentina's formal employment

Economist Carolina Manucci stated in a Canal E interview that top growth sectors like energy do not create enough jobs, while manufacturing and formal employment face major declines.

Manucci explained that production in Vaca Muerta grew more than 136% year-over-year and energy exports exceed 6,000 million dollars annually. However, the manufacturing industry recorded a 6% drop in the first quarter of 2026, with installed capacity utilization near 54%.

The hardest-hit sectors include textiles, down 33.2% year-over-year with plants operating at 20% capacity, as well as automotive and machinery, which fell 24.6% and nearly 30% respectively. The economist reported a loss of almost 370,000 registered jobs.

Manucci compared the current model with experiences in Norway, Canada and Australia, and recommended investments in education, services and public works for more balanced growth, including infrastructure improvements in Neuquén.

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Illustration depicting Argentina's February economic decline with falling graphs, closed factories, and empty shops in Buenos Aires.
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Economic activity fell 2.6% in February, according to INDEC

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Argentina's monthly economic activity estimator (EMAE) recorded a 2.1% year-over-year drop and a 2.6% seasonally adjusted decline in February 2026, INDEC reported. Manufacturing industry contracted 8.7% and commerce 7.0% year-over-year.

The Argentine Industrial Union estimated that factory production fell nearly 5% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month in May, marking a year of stagnation and remaining below 2022 levels.

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Gross domestic product grew 2.3% in the first quarter compared with the same period in 2025, according to INDEC data. Mining, agriculture and Vaca Muerta drove the result.

DANE director Piedad Urdinola clarified discrepancies between her agency's employment figures and those from Ugpp, citing different sources and methodologies. This follows criticism from Andi, which claims half a million formal jobs lost since 2023. DANE measures the labor market through direct surveys, while Andi relies on social security contributors.

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Economist Guillermo Hang warned that Argentina's government's main achievement, falling inflation, is showing signs of wear after an AmCham meeting. Hang said consumption recovery has not materialized and there are doubts about economic activity and family incomes. Monthly inflation stopped decelerating eight or nine months ago.

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