Infographic of Datafolha poll showing Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro 48% to 43% in 2026 election runoff
Infographic of Datafolha poll showing Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro 48% to 43% in 2026 election runoff
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Datafolha poll shows Lula at 48% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 43% in runoff

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A new Datafolha poll released Friday shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by five percentage points in a potential 2026 runoff.

The survey, conducted July 22-23 with 2,004 voters across 139 cities, shows stability compared to June. Lula stands at 48% against 43% for the PL senator in the runoff, outside the two-point margin of error.

In the first round, the president registers 40% of voting intentions against 32% for Flávio. Other candidates remain below 5%. Rejection of Flávio reaches 48%, slightly above Lula's 46%.

Lula's government evaluation stays steady, with 32% rating the administration as optimal or good, 38% as bad or terrible and 28% as regular. Approval sits at 49%.

Party conventions are scheduled in coming days, with the PL confirming Flávio's candidacy on Saturday.

Vad folk säger

Initial reactions on X show support for Lula leading the poll, skepticism regarding Datafolha's historical accuracy based on 2022 results, and concerns about high rejection rates for both candidates.

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Illustration of Lula leading Bolsonaro in Datafolha poll with 40% to 31%.
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Datafolha shows Lula at 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 31% in first round

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Datafolha survey released on Friday (22) points to an advantage for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential race.

A new Datafolha poll released on June 20 shows Lula's government negative rating steady at 38%, with 32% positive and 29% regular.

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A new Datafolha poll released yesterday shows Lula's lead over Flávio Bolsonaro rising to ten percentage points in the first round. The survey comes amid revelations about Flávio's involvement with former banker Daniel Vorcaro of Banco Master.

The state directories of União Brasil and PP in São Paulo formalized support on Monday, July 20, 2026, for presidential pre-candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). The national alliance remains undefined.

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PP president Ciro Nogueira rejected on Wednesday (22) Flávio Bolsonaro's request to form an alliance in the 2026 presidential race. The União Progressista federation is set to remain neutral.

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