Ebrard calls to close T-MEC uncertainty at lowest cost

Mexico's Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard urged closing the window of uncertainty over the T-MEC as soon as possible and at the lowest cost, ahead of its 2026 review. At a national meeting, he highlighted the country's favorable trade position and the treaty's survival. He recalled early-year tensions from Donald Trump's tariff threats.

Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico's Economy Secretary, made these remarks at the First National Meeting of Economic Development Poles for Well-Being. He stated that Mexico holds a more favorable trade position today than anticipated at the year's start, particularly against international partners and competitors, opening a key opportunity.

"Our task is to close the window of uncertainty as soon as possible, at the lowest cost we can. That is the strategy," Ebrard emphasized. He recalled that the year's beginning was marked by high commercial tension, when President Donald Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Mexican products and to abandon the treaty.

"The most difficult moment is behind us," he said, explaining that Mexico faced that phase almost alone, before other countries activated reciprocal tariffs. For 2026, the T-MEC review is inevitable, but the official expressed confidence in its survival due to structural factors making Mexico indispensable to the US economy.

"It is evident that the treaty will survive," he assured, citing recent statements by Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative to Congress. Ebrard stressed that "time is on our side" to resolve the uncertainty, but warned of the risks from delays in development poles, which could cost thousands of jobs and lost investments.

"Every time we lose a month, two months, three months, five months, that will cost thousands of jobs. That investment won't come back," he cautioned.

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The 2026 review of the Mexico, United States, and Canada Agreement (T-MEC) is shaping up as a complex process fraught with uncertainty, according to experts. The event will define commercial certainty for North America, with risks of U.S. protectionism and potential structural changes. Mexico faces challenges in sectors like energy, labor, and migration.

Mexico's Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard stated that the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (T-MEC) is progressing positively and is expected to conclude around July 1, 2026. During the January 15 morning press conference, Ebrard emphasized the professional dialogue with counterparts and the goal of strengthening the trade deal. He also revealed that Mexico's automotive industry pays an average of less than 13% in tariffs to the United States due to investments in North American components.

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The T-MEC review poses major hurdles for Mexico, as the US prioritizes national security over commercial efficiency. Analysts highlight Mexico's vulnerability in bilateral talks and shifting strategic perceptions. Mexico's low 0.7% economic growth in 2025 worsens its position.

Economist Gabriel Casillas forecasts a 2026 for Mexico with improved growth prospects, driven by the US economy and a light political agenda. He anticipates gradual fiscal consolidation and early inflationary challenges impacting interest rates. He also highlights the T-MEC review and minor local elections.

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Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney will hold brief meetings during the FIFA 2026 World Cup draw in Washington this Friday. While speculation surrounds potential economic talks on tariffs and the T-MEC review, the Canadian government confirms the focus will be solely on football. Business leaders from all three countries urge strengthening the trade agreement amid expiration threats.

Following Mexico's Senate approval of tariffs on Asian imports, Brazil has voiced concerns about potential disruptions to bilateral trade outside the protected automotive sector, urging dialogue to safeguard exports and investments.

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