Alejandro Werner, director of the Georgetown Americas Institute, warned that Mexico will achieve a favorable T-MEC negotiation with the United States, but in a context of institutional weakness due to unilateral US tariff decisions. He recommended that the Mexican government focus its growth strategy on internal reforms such as competition, deregulation, and education. He also projected that inflation will not drop below 4% in the coming years due to wage pressures.
During his participation in the ITAM's Seminar on Economic Perspectives 2026, Alejandro Werner, former Western Hemisphere Director at the IMF and current director of the Georgetown Americas Institute, emphasized the need for Mexico to prioritize internal policies to boost economic growth. "Our growth lever must turn to internal structural reforms, competition, deregulation, education, infrastructure, etc., and not a Plan Mexico that is everything and nothing," he stated.
Werner estimated that Mexico will achieve a good T-MEC negotiation, though the timing is uncertain and no agreement is final with the US government. "In the end, we will have a treaty, but what good is the treaty if the United States can move tariffs," he warned, noting that Washington can act unilaterally, forcing Mexico to adapt in a changing geopolitical environment. This would result in a tariff advantage, but within a much weaker institutional context.
The expert urged a clearer investment policy and reviewing the judicial reform to minimize its negative impact on society and investors. He suggested prioritizing areas like electric transmission and improving Wi-Fi penetration, which in Mexico is among the lowest in comparable economies.
Regarding inflation, Werner projected it will remain above 4% over the next five years due to minimum wage policy and wage redistribution, creating inflationary pressures. He anticipated a scenario of low growth with controlled inflation between 4% and 4.5%. As a recommendation in a risky world, he proposed accumulating more reserves at the Bank of Mexico, reaching an additional 100 billion dollars in three years for greater financial security.
