The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) opened higher on Tuesday (February 24, 2026) amid solid January tax receipt data. Analysts predict limited upside potential to 8,450, though correction risks persist. Strong domestic consumption supports positive sentiment.
IHSG Opening and Technical Analysis
The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) opened up 31.97 points or 0.38 percent at 8,428.05 on Tuesday (February 24, 2026). The LQ45 Index also rose 0.92 points or 0.11 percent to 848.68.
Associate Director of Research and Investment at Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas, Maximilianus Nico Demus, stated that technically, the IHSG has limited potential to strengthen. "Based on technical analysis, we see the IHSG potentially strengthening limited with support and resistance in the range of 8,310–8,450. Correction potential remains open, so caution is needed," Nico said in Jakarta.
Head of Retail Research at PT BNI Sekuritas, Fanny Suherman, added that the IHSG could break resistance at 8,450, with support at 8,320–8,350. Analyst at Binaartha Sekuritas, Ivan Rosanova, predicts a target of 8,482 if the IHSG holds above 8,324.
January 2026 Tax Receipts Data
The Ministry of Finance recorded January 2026 tax receipts at Rp116.2 trillion, up 30.7 percent year-on-year (yoy) or 4.9 percent of the 2026 state budget target. The increase was driven by Value Added Tax (PPN) and luxury goods sales tax (PPnBM) surging 83.9 percent yoy to Rp45.3 trillion, reflecting strong domestic consumption and a 23 percent drop in restitution.
Corporate income tax (PPh badan) grew 37 percent yoy to Rp5.7 trillion. Personal income tax and PPh 21 totaled Rp13.1 trillion, contracting 20.4 percent yoy due to administrative factors like Rp6.1 trillion in deposits not yet rebooked; adjusted, growth would be 16.5 percent yoy. Final PPh, PPh 22, and PPh 26 fell 11 percent yoy to Rp26 trillion. Other taxes jumped 685.8 percent yoy to Rp16.1 trillion, including Rp15.4 trillion in deposits.
Nico views this data as a strong signal for state revenue. "This indicates domestic purchasing power is relatively stable at the start of the year, positive for first-quarter growth. However, note that part of the growth is influenced by technical factors like reduced restitution and un-rebooked tax deposits," he said.
Global Context
Global markets showed mixed performance. US exchanges like the Dow Jones fell 1.66 percent to 48,804.06 on Monday (February 23, 2026) due to AI concerns and US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Trump plans a new 15 percent tariff on all US imports after the Supreme Court annulled previous ones. Asian markets were mixed in the morning, with Nikkei up 0.47 percent and Hang Seng down 1.69 percent.
Senior Market at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas, M. Nafan Aji Gusta, noted zero percent tariffs on specific Indonesian products to the US as a positive, though the US Supreme Court decision raises caution.
