An opinion piece in Havana Times speculates on the possibility of a political transition in Cuba inspired by recent events in Venezuela, where former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez leads a change following the capture of Nicolás Maduro. The text highlights Cuba's economic crisis and US pressures as potential catalysts. It mentions that Washington seeks an internal interlocutor to facilitate reforms.
Francisco Acevedo's article, published on January 25, 2026, in Havana Times, examines the repercussions in Cuba from events in Venezuela at the start of the year. Acevedo questions whether Cuba could have a transition similar to the one led by Delcy Rodríguez, who enabled the capture of Nicolás Maduro. He notes that Cuba's State Security has eliminated potential dissenters, such as Luis Orlando Domínguez, Alejandro Gil, Lage, Pérez Roque, and Robaina.
Cuba's economic crisis features daily blackouts, extreme shortages of food and medicine, visible political repression, and the largest migratory exodus in its history. The rapprochement during Barack Obama's administration failed to produce expected changes, and now the United States has cut the flow of Venezuelan money and oil to the island, leaving the Cuban government vulnerable.
President Trump recently confirmed discreet talks with Cuba, aimed at exploring a political change soon. However, hand-picked Miguel Díaz-Canel would only follow the Castros' historical instructions. Unlike Venezuela, Cuba lacks clear divisions in power centers, with control in few hands.
Among US options is a naval blockade to prevent fuel shipments, similar to Venezuela's. Mexico is Havana's main crude supplier, followed by Russia to a lesser degree. The presence of the aircraft carrier George W. Bush in the Caribbean prompted maximum alert in the regime, reviving phrases like 'the war of all the people.'
The National Defense Council reviewed plans for a State of War, though the exceptional defense regime was not activated, per the 2019 Constitution and National Defense Law. Acevedo argues that an internal ally, like a 'Trojan Horse,' would be crucial for a swift transition, focused on empowering the population and reforming the ineffective state economic policy. The repression of the July 2021 protests and ongoing detention of opponents illustrate the authoritarian control.
