The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar weakened at the opening of trading on Tuesday (January 20, 2026) to around Rp16,977-Rp16,985 per US dollar. Analysts predict limited strengthening potential due to fiscal pressures and awaiting the Bank Indonesia meeting. Concerns over the budget deficit nearing the 3 percent limit add to currency volatility.
On Tuesday (January 20, 2026), the rupiah exchange rate opened weaker in the Jakarta spot market. According to Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) data, the previous rate on Monday (January 19, 2026) was Rp16,935 per US dollar, down 55 points from Rp16,880 on Thursday (January 15, 2026). By 09:47 WIB, the rupiah traded at Rp16,977, down 22 points or 0.13 percent from Rp16,955, while the opening showed a 30-point decline to Rp16,985.
Doo Financial Futures currency analyst Lukman Leong forecasts the rupiah's potential to strengthen due to pressure on the US dollar from US bond selling, which pushed yields up from 4.13 percent to 4.25 percent. "The rupiah has potential to strengthen against the US dollar, which is again under pressure from US bond selling by investors," he said in Jakarta. However, this strengthening is limited as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Bank Indonesia Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) on Wednesday (January 21, 2026).
Economist and market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi highlights concerns over Indonesia's fiscal health after the previous year's budget deficit approached the legal 3 percent limit as of January 8, 2026, with weak state revenues. Government policies supporting an 8 percent growth target by 2029 under President Prabowo Subianto risk negative sentiment. Bank Indonesia is intervening in the DNDF and NDF markets, maintaining the benchmark interest rate, including adjustments to central bank securities and secondary market purchases of government bonds.
The resignation of Juda Agung as Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor is seen as having minimal impact. "Regarding the BI Deputy's resignation, it's not a positive thing, but whatever the reason, its impact won't be as big as the current concerns like the budget deficit and prospects of BI rate cuts," Lukman stated. The exchange rate is expected to move in the Rp16,700–Rp17,000 per US dollar range, with export forex management plans as a support.
