2025 Oscar predictions highlight unpredictable race

As nominations for the 2025 Oscars draw near, industry observers describe the contest as unusually uncertain, lacking a clear frontrunner. Blogs like Awards Daily capture the sentiment of a season marked by shifting narratives and prominent contenders like Timothée Chalamet and Mikey Madison.

The 2025 Oscar season has been characterized by unpredictability, with commentators likening it to 'the blind leading the blind' and a 'Ponzi scheme' that feels directionless. According to posts on Awards Daily, nominations are set to be announced on Thursday morning, catching many off guard with their sudden approach.

Writers reflect on the role of narratives in determining winners, drawing parallels to past surprises such as Crash upsetting expectations after Oppenheimer, or Everything Everywhere All at Once following No Country for Old Men. One analysis notes, 'For every Oppenheimer, there is a Crash,' underscoring how momentum can swing dramatically.

Emerging frontrunners include Timothée Chalamet, who is 'hitting a high in his awards trajectory' and dominating social media and campaigns ahead of the Golden Globes. In the Best Actress category, Mikey Madison is positioned as the one 'to lose,' though smear campaigns and controversies remain a risk as the season intensifies.

Discussions also preview Golden Globe decisions and highlight strong ensembles and directors, with the race described as 'in need of a frontrunner' that may emerge this weekend. Overall, the season feels sparse, with fewer standout films than in previous years, leading to speculation about gatecrashers in the final predictions.

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Photorealistic illustration depicting Variety's 2026 Oscars acting predictions with Dolby Theatre, competing Oscar statuettes, and magazine cover.
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Variety updates predictions for 2026 Oscars acting categories

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Variety has released its latest predictions for the 2026 Oscars acting races, highlighting tight competitions in Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actor. The forecasts, updated on January 20, 2026, reflect recent precursor awards and ongoing buzz. Nominations will be announced on January 22, with the ceremony set for March 15 at the Dolby Theatre.

Variety has released its latest predictions for the 2026 Academy Awards, focusing on competitive fields like best documentary feature and best cinematography. Standouts include Geeta Gandbhir's 'The Perfect Neighbor' as an early frontrunner in documentaries and Autumn Durald Arkapaw's work on 'Sinners' in cinematography. These updates, published around November 11, 2025, capture the fluid race amid festivals like DOC NYC.

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The 31st Critics Choice Awards are set for Sunday, with Ryan Coogler's "Sinners" leading nominations at 17 but Variety forecasting Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" to claim key prizes. The event, hosted by Chelsea Handler and airing live on E!, highlights a competitive field across film and television categories. Predictions suggest a split of honors, reflecting broad enthusiasm in the industry.

Variety has compiled a list of 2025 films that deserve more attention despite initial limited releases or critical oversight. Published on December 24, 2025, the roundup highlights indie dramas, genre entries, and personal stories that got lost amid awards contenders. Critics praise these works for their unique visions and strong performances.

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The film Hamnet, starring Irish actors Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal, is expected to secure multiple nominations at the 2026 Academy Awards. Directed by Chloé Zhao, the movie has already earned six Golden Globes nods, signaling strong Oscar potential. Other Irish productions and talents are also in contention across various categories.

The 2026 BAFTA Film Awards nominations have positioned Paul Thomas Anderson's 'One Battle After Another' as the frontrunner with 14 nods, closely followed by Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners' with 13. Notable snubs include Delroy Lindo and Amy Madigan, raising questions for the upcoming Oscars. The announcements, revealed in London, underscore BAFTA's role as a key predictor in the awards season.

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Warner Bros is positioning itself as a strong contender in the 2026 Oscars race with films like Sinners and One Battle After Another, despite ongoing corporate acquisition turmoil. The studio's internal chaos may paradoxically boost its awards prospects, drawing parallels to past studio successes during upheaval. Netflix's Frankenstein remains a rival, but Warner's theatrical focus gives it an edge.

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