The Buffalo Bills, led by MVP Josh Allen, face the surging Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC wild card matchup on Sunday. As the No. 6 seed with a 12-5 record, Buffalo enters as a slight favorite despite questions about its receiving corps and run defense. Jacksonville, the No. 3 seed at 13-4, rides an eight-game winning streak into the game at EverBank Stadium.
The Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars are set to square off in the AFC wild card round on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. Buffalo, finishing the regular season 12-5 as the AFC's No. 6 seed, will rely heavily on quarterback Josh Allen, the reigning MVP who has posted seven playoff wins over the past five years—more than any other quarterback without a Super Bowl appearance. Allen's dual-threat ability, combining 239 passing yards and 39 rushing yards with two touchdowns in a recent key game, underscores his potential to carry the team.
However, the Bills face challenges. Their wide receiver group is considered the weakest among playoff teams, with slot receiver Khalil Shakir leading the way at 72 catches for 719 yards and four touchdowns. Speedsters Tyrell Shavers and Brandin Cooks have limited production, and second-round pick Keon Coleman has been inactive in recent meaningful games. Tight end Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo's most skilled receiving option with a 78% completion rate on targets from Allen for 523 yards and five touchdowns this season, missed the Week 17 loss to Philadelphia due to injuries and remains crucial. Defensively, the Bills allowed 5.1 yards per carry, the NFL's worst explosive rush rate at 11.3%, and a record eight touchdown runs of 30+ yards.
On the other side, the Jaguars enter as the AFC South champions in their first year under coach Liam Coen, boasting a 13-4 record and an eight-game winning streak after a 5-4 start. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has hit peak efficiency, supported by running back Travis Etienne's resurgence and the midseason addition of wideout Jakobi Meyers. Jacksonville's No. 1 rushing defense could neutralize Buffalo's ground attack, led by James Cook's NFL-leading 1,621 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per carry—the most efficient such performance since Jim Brown in 1963.
Betting odds list the Bills as 1-point favorites with an over/under of 52 points. A prop bet highlights Shakir over 4.5 receptions, given his role in quick-hit plays. As underdogs by 1.5 points in some lines, the Jaguars' momentum and home-field advantage make them a potential upset threat, especially if Etienne exploits Buffalo's run defense vulnerabilities.
