Colombia prepares for sharp rise in LNG imports ahead of El Niño

Colombia's thermal power plants are gearing up to boost liquefied natural gas imports ahead of El Niño's expected arrival in August, which could deplete hydroelectric reservoirs. Alejandro Castañeda, director of Andeg, said the Spec terminal will run at full capacity to support the grid. The move aims to prevent blackouts during the dry season.

Fossil fuel power plants, mainly running on natural gas, currently supply 15% of Colombia's electricity. With El Niño forecast by the US Climate Prediction Center to emerge from August 1 and last through year-end, the country braces for drier conditions threatening hydroelectric generation, which meets two-thirds of demand.

Alejandro Castañeda, director of the Colombian Association of Energy Generators (Andeg), said thermal plants will ramp up to preserve reservoirs, now at 60% per XM SA and needing over 80% by August. Colombia imports 210 million cubic feet of LNG daily via the Spec terminal, with full 475 million capacity; Castañeda expects full operation from August for power plants.

Imports hit 2.06 million metric tons during the 2024 El Niño, dropping to 1.9 million in 2025. Two approved projects—Ecopetrol's in Buenaventura and Caribe LNG on the Atlantic coast—will add 60 million cubic feet daily from September. Castañeda called for incentives to cut household use and encourage industrial self-generation.

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Drought-stricken Andes landscape with forest fires and NOAA El Niño forecast map overlay, illustrating 90% probability warning.
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NOAA raises El Niño probability to 90% for September 2026

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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.

Trade groups Andeg and Fenalcarbón stressed the need for long-term contracts and coal-fired thermal plants as backup for Colombia's power grid, with El Niño likely in the second half of 2026. Alejandro Castañeda, Andeg president, and Carlos Cante, from Fenalcarbón, warned of growing energy deficits and climate vulnerabilities.

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Jorge Henao, general manager of Transportadora de Gas de Colombia (TGI), warned of the need to diversify energy supply sources ahead of the impending El Niño phenomenon. Speaking at the Congreso de Naturgas 2026, he emphasized regional integration with Peru as a key option. Henao highlighted Camisea gas as a cost-effective alternative.

The Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética (UPME) reported that in 2025 solar energy generated 4,473.8 GWh, surpassing coal by 25% at 3,564.2 GWh. President Gustavo Petro highlighted a 1,650% growth under his government. UPME emphasizes the sun's relevant role in the national grid.

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Mexico's National Center for Energy Control (CENACE) forecasts a historic peak of up to 54,000 megawatts in electricity demand during the hottest months from May to late summer, but with sufficient reserves to prevent blackouts. CENACE director Octavio Mota Palomino called it a 'tight summer, but without deficit.' Officials have taken preventive steps ahead of potential heat waves.

The Ecuadorian government announced a 900% increase in the tariff for transporting Colombian crude through the Transecuatoriano Pipeline, rising from about $2.5 per barrel to over $30. Ecopetrol, impacted by this unilateral measure, is exploring options like exporting via Coveñas to mitigate effects on its southern Colombia operations. Colombia's Ministry of Mines and Energy rejected the decision, calling it an aggression threatening production in Putumayo.

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The president met with the electricity and renewable energy minister in mid-winter to review plans for securing power supply ahead of the summer peak. Egypt faces challenges in providing electricity during summer due to natural gas shortages and rising demand, with plans to add 3,000 megawatts of solar power this year. The government also relies on importing liquefied natural gas to avoid blackouts.

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