Deforestation could push Amazon to tipping point in 2030s

A new study shows that continued deforestation in the Amazon could trigger widespread rainforest dieback with as little as 1.5°C of global warming. Researchers warn the tipping point could arrive as soon as 2031 if forest loss reaches 22 per cent.

Scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research modelled the combined effects of rising temperatures and deforestation through 2050. Their findings indicate that the critical warming threshold for Amazon dieback drops by about 2°C when forest loss is included, compared with earlier estimates that ignored deforestation.

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A new analysis in Geophysical Research Letters shows Earth warming at ~0.36°C per decade since 2014—about double the prior rate of 0.18°C per decade—with 98% confidence after accounting for natural factors. Led by Stefan Rahmstorf, the study warns the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit could be breached by 2028, amid debates over short-term trends and data uncertainties.

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Building on recent studies like Stefan Rahmstorf et al.'s analysis showing a doubling of Earth's warming rate to ~0.36°C per decade since 2014, scientists disagree on whether reductions in aerosol pollution or natural fluctuations are driving the speedup. Nearly all agree warming has accelerated, but views differ on causes, rate, and future trajectory—with implications for climate sensitivity and adaptation.

A new study warns of an interdisciplinary blind spot that could force 132 million people to flee rising sea levels, which could rise by up to 150 centimeters. Swedish oceanographer Ola Kalén at SMHI describes the acceleration of sea level rise since the 1960s as shocking.

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Atmospheric methane concentrations rose at an unprecedented rate in the early 2020s, driven by a weakened natural removal process and increased emissions from wetter landscapes. Scientists attribute much of the spike to a drop in hydroxyl radicals during 2020-2021, combined with climate-driven boosts from wetlands and agriculture. The findings underscore the interplay between atmospheric chemistry and weather patterns in global greenhouse gas trends.

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