Indirect gases drive 15 percent of global warming

Emissions of carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds have contributed significantly to planetary warming, according to new research. These indirect greenhouse gases account for about 15 percent of the temperature rise since pre-industrial times. Few nations currently address them in climate plans.

The pollutants react in the atmosphere to form ozone and reduce levels of hydroxyl radicals that break down methane. Together with black carbon they have caused 0.3 degrees Celsius of warming, offset partly by aerosols and nitrogen oxides.

Ilissa Ocko of Spark Climate Solutions said these forgotten pollutants strongly contribute to current warming and could slow future temperature rise if included in policies. Alex Archibald of the University of Cambridge noted that cutting them offers low-hanging fruit to avoid tipping points.

The gases break down within hours or years, so reductions would quickly lessen their impact. Sources include fossil fuel combustion, vehicle exhaust, forest burning and solvents. Air pollution rules in places like the UK have already cut emissions, yet many countries maintain weaker standards.

The US Environmental Protection Agency issued a regulation in January that scientists say weakens controls on nitrogen oxides from gas power plants. Researchers recommend nations mention these gases in Paris Agreement submissions and set reduction targets.

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Building on recent studies like Stefan Rahmstorf et al.'s analysis showing a doubling of Earth's warming rate to ~0.36°C per decade since 2014, scientists disagree on whether reductions in aerosol pollution or natural fluctuations are driving the speedup. Nearly all agree warming has accelerated, but views differ on causes, rate, and future trajectory—with implications for climate sensitivity and adaptation.

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Scientists analyzing ancient ice from Antarctica have found that ocean temperatures dropped by 2 to 2.5 degrees Celsius over the past 3 million years, while carbon dioxide and methane levels changed only modestly. The studies, led by researchers from Oregon State University and others, suggest factors beyond greenhouse gases drove much of Earth's long-term cooling. The findings come from ice cores at Allan Hills in East Antarctica.

Scientists have found that the 2022 eruption of an underwater volcano in the South Pacific triggered a chemical process that removed significant amounts of methane from the atmosphere. The discovery, detailed in a new study, shows how volcanic ash and seawater combined to break down the potent greenhouse gas.

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Researchers have analysed a 3-million-year-old ice core from Allan Hills in Antarctica, measuring atmospheric CO2 at 250 parts per million and methane at 507 parts per billion during the late Pliocene. This epoch featured global temperatures about 1°C warmer than today and sea levels up to 25 metres higher. The levels are lower than previous indirect estimates.

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