Scientists explain how carbon dioxide cools the stratosphere

Researchers at Columbia University have identified the precise mechanism by which rising carbon dioxide levels cool the upper atmosphere. The finding accounts for decades of observed stratospheric cooling amid surface warming. Their study appears in the journal Nature Geoscience.

The stratosphere, the layer between roughly 11 and 50 kilometers above the surface, has cooled by about 2 degrees Celsius since the mid-1980s. This cooling exceeds by more than ten times the amount expected without human emissions of carbon dioxide. The process was first predicted in the 1960s by climatologist Syukuro Manabe.

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Scientists analyzing ancient ice from Antarctica have found that ocean temperatures dropped by 2 to 2.5 degrees Celsius over the past 3 million years, while carbon dioxide and methane levels changed only modestly. The studies, led by researchers from Oregon State University and others, suggest factors beyond greenhouse gases drove much of Earth's long-term cooling. The findings come from ice cores at Allan Hills in East Antarctica.

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Building on recent studies like Stefan Rahmstorf et al.'s analysis showing a doubling of Earth's warming rate to ~0.36°C per decade since 2014, scientists disagree on whether reductions in aerosol pollution or natural fluctuations are driving the speedup. Nearly all agree warming has accelerated, but views differ on causes, rate, and future trajectory—with implications for climate sensitivity and adaptation.

New studies indicate that stronger winds and warming deep ocean water have triggered a sharp decline in Antarctic sea ice since 2016. Previously expanding, the ice reached a record high in 2014 before plummeting to record lows. Researchers link this shift to wind-driven upwelling of circumpolar deep water.

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Researchers have identified volcanic eruptions, likely in Iceland, as the source of a mysterious platinum spike in Greenland ice cores from 12,800 years ago. This finding rules out a comet or asteroid impact and occurred decades after the onset of the Younger Dryas cooling period. The study provides new insights into abrupt climate shifts.

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