The International Data Corporation (IDC) has warned of a potential downturn in the PC market, predicting shipments could drop by 8.9 percent in 2026 due to escalating memory prices driven by AI demands. Memory manufacturers are prioritizing AI data center components over consumer electronics, pushing up costs for PCs and smartphones alike. Companies like Framework have already raised prices, with further increases likely.
The surge in demand for AI infrastructure is straining the supply of memory chips for everyday devices, according to a recent IDC report. Major memory makers have redirected production from conventional DRAM and NAND—used in smartphones, PCs, and other consumer electronics—to specialized types like high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-capacity DDR5 for AI data centers. This shift has already contributed to the demise of one consumer-facing RAM brand and is now threatening broader market contraction.
In IDC's worst-case scenario, PC shipments could shrink by up to 8.9 percent in 2026, with prices rising 6 to 8 percent. Modular PC maker Framework has responded by increasing prices on some laptops and components, stating that "further cost and price increases are highly likely over the next months." The irony is stark: AI PCs, equipped with neural processing units for local AI tasks, were expected to revive the industry post-pandemic. Yet their higher RAM requirements make them particularly susceptible to these AI-fueled shortages.
The effects extend beyond PCs. IDC anticipates smartphone average selling prices could climb 6 to 8 percent, with shipments declining by as much as 5.2 percent. Well-resourced firms like Apple and Samsung may mitigate the impact through cash reserves and long-term supply deals, maintaining stability for a year or two. For smaller players, however, the outlook involves higher costs and reduced innovation in the near term.
IDC writes: "Instead of expanding conventional DRAM and NAND used in smartphones, PCs and other consumer electronics, major memory makers have shifted production toward memory used in AI data centers, such as high-bandwidth (HBM) and high-capacity DDR5." This report, published on December 30, 2025, underscores the unintended consequences of the AI boom on consumer technology.
