Japan's services inflation steady at 2.6% in January, signaling wage-driven price pressure

A leading indicator of Japan's services sector prices rose 2.6% in January from a year earlier, matching December's gain. The data signals that rising wages from a tight labor market continue to exert inflationary pressure on the economy. Bank of Japan figures released on Wednesday highlight this trend.

TOKYO, Feb 25 (Reuters) – A leading indicator of Japan’s services sector prices rose 2.6% in January from a year earlier, data showed on Wednesday, a sign rising wages from a tight labor market continued to pile inflationary pressure on the economy.

The increase in the services producer price index, which tracks the price companies charge each other for services, followed a 2.6% gain in December, Bank of Japan data showed. The rise was driven by higher charges for construction work and temporary staff services.

The BOJ ended a decade-long, massive stimulus program in 2024 and in December raised short-term interest rates to 0.75% on the view Japan was on the cusp of durably meeting its 2% inflation target. With consumer inflation exceeding 2% for nearly four years, the central bank has signaled its readiness to keep hiking borrowing costs if prices continue to rise steadily accompanied by higher wages.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the central bank would keep a close eye on whether prospects of steady wage gains will prod more companies to pass on rising labor costs, in judging how soon to hike interest rates again. "The central bank would keep a close eye on whether prospects of steady wage gains will prod more companies to pass on rising labor costs," Ueda stated, in assessing the timing for further rate increases.

These figures indicate sustained wage-driven inflation, which could influence the BOJ's future policy decisions.

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for February 2026 rose 0.3% month-over-month and remained at 2.4% year-over-year, matching economist expectations. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% monthly and stayed at 2.5% annually. While inflation showed stability before the recent U.S.-Israel-Iran war, surging oil prices are expected to push future readings higher.

Core inflation in Tokyo slowed to a 15-month low in January due to gasoline subsidies and easing food price pressures, offering some relief to consumers. Yet an underlying gauge excluding fresh food and fuel remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, indicating continued progress toward sustainable price growth.

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Tokyo's core consumer price index rose 1.8% in February, falling below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the first time since October 2024. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's utility subsidies curbed household energy costs, posing a communication challenge for the central bank's planned interest rate hikes. The figure exceeded economists' median forecast of 1.7%.

South Korea's consumer prices rose 2 percent year-on-year in January, marking the slowest pace in five months. The slowdown was partly due to stable petroleum product prices, as international crude oil prices fell, according to government data. However, prices for some agricultural and livestock products continued to surge sharply.

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Japan's real gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 0.2% in the October-December quarter of 2025, falling short of market estimates. Preliminary data from the Cabinet Office showed a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter rise, marking the first positive growth in two quarters. The full-year growth rate for 2025 reached 1.1%, the highest since 2022.

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