Japan's consumer sentiment improves for second consecutive quarter

A Bank of Japan quarterly survey for December 2025 showed consumer sentiment rising for two straight quarters, while views on living conditions worsened for the first time in two quarters. The results suggest more people believe the overall economy is improving, though higher prices are burdening livelihoods.

The Bank of Japan released its December 2025 quarterly consumer sentiment survey on January 20, 2026, revealing an improvement in views on economic conditions. The diffusion index (DI) for current economic conditions stood at minus 50.4, up from minus 58.7 in the September 2025 survey. This DI measures the percentage of respondents who feel conditions have improved over the past year minus those who feel they have worsened.

The DI for economic outlooks one year ahead improved to minus 18.3, likely reflecting stronger corporate earnings and rising incomes from wage hikes. In contrast, the DI for living conditions declined to minus 52.2 from minus 51.6 in September, indicating a slight deterioration in personal financial perceptions.

Notably, 95.2% of respondents reported that prices across the nation had risen compared to a year earlier, a trend persisting above 90% for the past three and a half years. The survey targeted 4,000 individuals aged 20 and over nationwide, conducted from November 5 to December 8, 2025, with a 50.4% valid response rate.

These findings highlight a growing optimism about the broader economy amid ongoing inflationary pressures that continue to strain household budgets.

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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks as bond yields rise, stocks fall, and yen strengthens in market reaction.
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BOJ's Ueda speech drives up bond yields, stocks fall

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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at a possible interest rate hike in a speech on December 1, leading to rising bond yields and a stronger yen. This triggered a decline in the Nikkei stock average. Markets now see heightened odds of a hike at the central bank's December 19 policy meeting.

The Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey showed large manufacturers’ business sentiment index rising to 15 in December from 14 in September, marking a four-year high since December 2021. This improvement reinforces market expectations for a rate hike by the central bank. Nonmanufacturers’ index held steady at 34.

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Japan's Q4 2025 GDP was revised upward to 1.3% annualized from the preliminary 0.2% reported on February 16, driven by strong business spending. January household spending on goods and private services held steady despite a year-on-year drop, with contained retail gasoline prices easing inflation. Analysts now expect the Bank of Japan to hold rates in April and hike in June.

Japan's real wages fell 0.1% in December 2025 from a year earlier, marking the 12th consecutive monthly decline. Labor ministry data showed nominal wages rose 2.4%, but inflation outpaced the gains. The trend bolsters arguments for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to pursue expansionary fiscal policies following her election victory.

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Following its December 19-20 policy meeting, the Bank of Japan raised its rate to 0.75%, prompting yen fluctuations, sustained high inflation, bank rate adjustments, and measured government support amid U.S. tariff concerns and shunto wage prospects.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled the likelihood of further interest rate hikes next year, expressing growing confidence that the central bank is nearing its sustainable 2% price stability target. In a speech Thursday at a conference hosted by business lobby Keidanren, Ueda noted that the goal, accompanied by wage increases, is steadily approaching. His remarks underscore investor expectations that the bank will continue hikes even after raising borrowing costs to the highest level since 1995 last Friday.

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Japan's Nikkei average surpassed 58,000 for the first time following the Liberal Democratic Party's landslide election victory. Expectations for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's economic stimulus measures are driving the market, though fiscal concerns linger.

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