US consumer sentiment hits record low in April

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 47.6 in April, its lowest level on record, after falling 5.7 points from the previous month. The plunge, nearly 11 percent, was largely attributed to the outbreak of the Iran conflict, which fueled inflation fears. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose sharply to 4.8 percent from 3.8 percent in March.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 47.6 in April, marking a 5.7-point decline and the lowest reading ever recorded. This represented a nearly 11 percent drop month-over-month and missed economists' forecast of 51.6. Officials pointed to the recent outbreak of the Iran conflict as the primary driver, heightening concerns over rising prices among households across the United States. Year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 4.8 percent, up from 3.8 percent in March—the biggest one-month jump since April 2025. This marked a significant shift in consumer outlook, reflecting broader economic anxieties amid geopolitical tensions. The data, as reported by Seeking Alpha, underscores vulnerabilities in public confidence at a time of global instability. No immediate policy responses have been announced by Federal Reserve officials.

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News illustration of steady U.S. February CPI data at 2.4% amid expected oil price surges from geopolitical tensions.
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February CPI holds steady above Fed's target

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for February 2026 rose 0.3% month-over-month and remained at 2.4% year-over-year, matching economist expectations. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% monthly and stayed at 2.5% annually. While inflation showed stability before the recent U.S.-Israel-Iran war, surging oil prices are expected to push future readings higher.

Germany's HDE consumer barometer dropped to 94.85 points in April, its lowest since February 2024. Consumers anticipate rising prices and interest rates, weighing on private spending. The plunge is linked to the Iran war and surging energy costs.

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China's consumer price index rose 0.8 percent in the first two months of 2026, driven by a surge in spending during an extended Chinese New Year holiday. However, analysts remain concerned about long-term deflation risks.

US stock markets tumbled after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and signaled just one rate cut this year. The Dow Jones dropped 768 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell over 1.3%. Rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and an increase in the Producer Price Index contributed to the uncertainty.

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The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index rose 1.8% to 72.1 in February, defying expectations of a 0.6% decline. This marks a 0.8% fall from the previous year. The index remains well below historical peaks.

Inflation expectations are increasing in US breakeven rates and eurozone swap rates, influenced by recent statements from President Trump. Oil prices have stabilized alongside reduced anxiety in risk assets, yet concerns persist over widening spreads. Analysts highlight these trends as problematic amid ongoing economic conflicts.

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The latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) from the Banco Central has raised inflation expectations for March and the rest of 2026. Consultancies forecast 3.0% for March, with an annual projection of 29.1%. They also updated estimates for the dollar, GDP, and unemployment.

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