Jefferies strategist sells bitcoin holdings over quantum risks

Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, has removed bitcoin from the firm's model portfolio, citing its likely peak price and threats from quantum computing. He replaced the allocation with gold investments, viewing the metal as a more secure store of value. This move comes as bitcoin enters a bear market following a strong 2025 rally.

Christopher Wood, a prominent bitcoin advocate and global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, has eliminated the cryptocurrency from his firm's long-term model portfolio. For the past five years, bitcoin had comprised 5% to 10% of the allocation, but Wood now believes it has reached its post-halving peak at $126,000 last year.

The decision stems from two main concerns: the cryptocurrency's price trajectory and an emerging technological risk. Bitcoin has slid into a bear market since late 2025, driven by broader market risk aversion, reduced liquidity, and worries over the yen-carry trade. More critically, Wood highlights quantum computing as an existential threat to bitcoin's security.

He specifically references cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs), advanced systems that could crack bitcoin's encryption. Currently, deriving a private key from a public one would take supercomputers trillions of years. However, CRQCs might accomplish this in mere hours or days, potentially allowing unauthorized access to bitcoin holdings. A ChainCode Labs report estimates that up to 10 million tokens—about 50% of bitcoin's supply—could be vulnerable.

Within the crypto community, discussions are underway about burning vulnerable coins to mitigate risks, though Wood notes this issue may not immediately impact prices. "While GREED & fear does not believe that the quantum issue is about to hit the Bitcoin price dramatically in the near term, the store of value concept is clearly on less solid foundation from the standpoint of a long-term pension portfolio," Wood wrote in a client note.

In bitcoin's place, the portfolio now includes a 10% allocation to gold and gold mining stocks, bringing total gold exposure to 45%, with 25% in mining and 30% in Asian equities excluding Japan. Wood argues this shift favors gold, which had its best year since 1979 in 2025 and remains near record highs amid geopolitical tensions and inflation. "Meanwhile, the existential issue raised by quantum as regards Bitcoin can only be long-term positive for gold since it remains the historically stress tested store of value," he added.

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Split-image illustration contrasting shiny rising gold bars and charts with a falling, cracked Bitcoin price screen, emphasizing Bitcoin's underperformance vs. gold into 2025.
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Bitcoin extends gold underperformance into end of 2025

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Building on the 45% BTC/gold ratio slide through mid-December, gold surged 70% for the year while bitcoin fell 6% YTD amid persistent weakness. Bitcoin traded around $87,000, down 22% in Q4 after an October rout erased $1T from crypto markets, pressured by strong U.S. data and bearish technicals.

Precious metals experienced a dramatic plunge on Friday, with silver dropping 35% and gold falling 12% from recent highs. Bitcoin remained relatively stable around $83,000 amid the volatility. The sell-off appears linked to President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair.

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Jurien Timmer, Fidelity's director of global macro, has turned bearish on bitcoin, predicting a year-long downturn in 2026 after the cryptocurrency's recent peak. He points to historical four-year cycles aligning closely with bitcoin's October high near $125,000. In contrast, Timmer highlights gold's robust bull market performance throughout 2025.

Anthony Pompliano, chairman of ProCap Financial, forecasts a strong recovery for bitcoin as the Federal Reserve prints money to combat deflation. He describes this as a 'monetary slingshot' that will devalue the currency and boost bitcoin's value in the long term. Despite recent price drops, Pompliano urges investors to hold firm through the current economic pressures.

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Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone has cautioned that bitcoin's recent slide may indicate broader financial stress and a potential U.S. recession. He predicts the cryptocurrency could drop to $10,000 as the post-2008 'buy the dip' era ends amid high stock valuations and low volatility. Market analyst Jason Fernandes views such a steep decline as a low-probability event requiring a severe credit shock.

Bitcoin held around $68,000 on Tuesday, March 3, showing resilience after Monday's rally, as global stocks tumbled on renewed Middle East tensions. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell over 2%, gold dropped sharply, and the U.S. dollar strengthened amid risk-off moves.

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Bitcoin surged 4% to $106,087.54 as the global cryptocurrency market recovered, with its total capitalization rising to $3.57 trillion. The rebound follows a sharp selloff that liquidated nearly $20 billion in leveraged positions and erased half a trillion dollars from the market over a weekend. Experts view the event as a necessary correction exposing structural flaws while highlighting improved infrastructure resilience.

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