On March 5, 2026—the sixth day of the US-Iran war that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28—the Mexican export oil blend hit $75.24 per barrel, its highest since July 2024. The conflict's blockage of the Strait of Hormuz drove a 7% daily rise, surpassing forecasts by 37%. Each extra dollar could bring Mexico billions in revenue, analysts say.
The US-Iran war, ignited by U.S. and Israeli strikes killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Jamenei around February 28-March 2, has escalated with Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for global oil flows. On March 5, Petróleos Mexicanos reported the export blend closing at $75.24 per barrel, up 7% from the prior day and unseen since July 18, 2024. This exceeds the Secretariat of Finance's 2026 forecast of $54.90 by 37%.
Finance Secretary Edgar Amador noted that at a $57.80 reference, each additional dollar yields 13.1 billion pesos extra. Moody’s Ratings highlighted very large crude carrier rates jumping above $350,000 daily from $200,000 on February 27, though bookings are scarce. The agency anticipates weeks of disruption but eventual resumption to tap importers' stocks.
Global benchmarks climbed: WTI to $80.85 (+8.29%) and Brent to $85.30 (+4.79%) by 13:20. Iran claimed a tanker attack in the Persian Gulf, with Hormuz traffic down over 95% (Bloomberg). The IEA warned of limited alternatives to the strait’s 15 million bpd oil and 5 million refined products.
Mexico's peso fell 1.31% to 17.79/USD (Banxico), or 18.20 in banks, amid risk aversion. The Citi Survey raised its 2026 year-end forecast to 18.18/USD with 1.5% GDP growth. This builds on earlier surges, like the blend's $66.63 peak on March 2 amid initial retaliation threats.
