Mexico gross fixed investment rises 5.1 percent in April

Gross fixed capital formation rose 5.1 percent year on year in April, ending a 19-month streak of contractions.

INEGI reported that productive investment grew 4.0 percent month on month from March, its largest advance since November 2020. Spending on construction drove the result with an 8.8 percent year-on-year rise, while machinery and equipment advanced only 0.9 percent.

For the January-April period, gross fixed capital formation posted a 1.0 percent annual decline. Private investment fell 2.2 percent, in contrast with the 7.0 percent gain in public investment.

Analysts from Monex, Banamex and Valmex said the figure represents a positive signal, yet cautioned that it is still premature to confirm a trend change. The recovery remains concentrated in residential construction and public works.

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Illustration of Mexico's economy showing GDP contraction with charts and Mexico City skyline
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Mexico economy contracts 0.6 percent in first quarter of 2026

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Mexico's gross domestic product fell 0.6 percent in the first quarter compared with the prior period, according to final Inegi data released Friday. The contraction was smaller than expected and revives debate over possible further rate cuts by Banxico.

After a 2.6% drop in economic activity in February, according to INDEC, private consultancies estimate a March recovery driven by agriculture. Equilibra forecasts a 1.5% year-on-year rise and 1% monthly desesasonalized. The first quarter would end with 0.4% growth versus 2025.

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Official data showed China's fixed-asset investment dropped 1.6 percent year on year in the first four months of 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics reported.

The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses reported the consumer price index at 2.6% for April, the lowest reading in ten months.

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The Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee reported that central government total and primary spending through April 2026 reached 7.5% and 6% of GDP respectively.

IMSS data show the average contribution salary hit a record of 663.50 pesos daily in March, up 7.1% nominally. Yet, formal job creation in the first quarter was the weakest in two decades, excluding past crises. This boosts informality and underemployment, analysts say.

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Real GDP grew at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2026. The figure fell short of the 2.0 percent forecast but showed an increase from the 0.5 percent rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.

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