Softer inflation leads banks to expect RBI rate hold

Major banks have revised their forecasts for the Reserve Bank of India after recent softer inflation readings. Standard Chartered Bank has already dropped its call for an August rate increase. Most institutions now anticipate the central bank will stay on hold through FY27.

Bank economists surveyed by The Economic Times indicate that the RBI is likely to prioritise growth over further inflation control measures. Some analysts still see possible rate increases later in the year, though these would come at the back end of the period.

Standard Chartered Bank withdrew its August policy meeting forecast following the last review. Other institutions including Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICRA Ratings have aligned with expectations of no immediate changes.

The shift reflects updated views on inflation trends and the central bank's focus on supporting economic expansion.

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Banco de la República board unanimously holds interest rate at 11.25% in meeting with Finance Minister amid inflation and political tensions.
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Banco de la República unanimously holds interest rate at 11.25%, defying hike expectations amid government tensions

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In its May 1, 2026 board meeting, Banco de la República unanimously kept the benchmark interest rate at 11.25%, surprising analysts expecting a hike to combat accelerating inflation. Finance Minister Germán Ávila participated fully, citing constructive dialogue, while board members justified the decision to maintain stability amid political pressures.

A majority of economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep its policy rate unchanged at the June meeting. Geopolitical tensions and adverse weather forecasts are cited as key factors behind the anticipated decision.

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The South African Reserve Bank kept its repo rate steady at 7 percent on Thursday, though a divided Monetary Policy Committee vote and warnings of upside inflation risks signal possible future hikes.

Economy Minister Airlangga Hartarto and Investment Minister Rosan Roeslani urged state-owned banks not to rush in raising lending rates after Bank Indonesia lifted the benchmark rate to 5.75 percent.

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Banking system liquidity has dropped to its lowest level this fiscal year, pushing up money market rates. Advanced tax outflows triggered the decline. The Reserve Bank of India is offering temporary support through variable rate repo operations.

The International Monetary Fund has called on Ethiopia's central bank to stand ready to tighten monetary policy if inflation pressures return, following approval of the fifth review under a credit facility that released about $464 million.

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Banco de la República general manager Leonardo Villar said monetary policy will keep rates high until inflation returns to the 2%-4% target range. The move followed the board's latest meeting.

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