South Africa’s foreign policy faces growing tensions

South Africa grapples with tensions between its historical foreign policy roots and economic ties to the West, amid recent stances on Israel and Venezuela. These positions highlight challenges in a shifting international order. Strategic ambiguity is becoming unsustainable for the nation.

Since the end of apartheid in 1994, South Africa’s foreign policy has been influenced by the African National Congress’s alliances formed during exile, including ties with Cuba, Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and the Palestinian cause. These relationships provided crucial support against apartheid and shaped a moral foundation for diplomacy.

However, the global landscape has evolved significantly. The post-Cold War period of globalization and multilateralism is transitioning to a more competitive environment where power politics dominate. Financial systems and trade are increasingly used as tools in international relations, limiting room for middle powers like South Africa to maintain neutrality.

Recent actions have intensified scrutiny. South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, rooted in international law and historical parallels, has earned praise in the Global South but strained relations with the United States, Israel’s key ally and a cornerstone of global finance. Similarly, public support for Venezuela and ongoing engagements with Cuba and Iran, once symbolic of solidarity, now risk being interpreted as strategic alignments in an era of bloc politics.

Economically, South Africa remains integrated into Western-dominated structures, including dollar-based finance and global markets. This integration makes separating ideological diplomacy from pragmatic economics increasingly difficult. Perceptions alone can affect investor confidence and trade without formal sanctions.

The rise of coalition politics in South Africa adds complexity, prompting questions about whether foreign policy should evolve beyond the liberation movement’s legacy to incorporate a broader national consensus. As Lungisani Mngadi, an independent policy researcher, notes, the country stands at a crossroads where adapting to national interests may be essential for diplomatic and economic stability in a polarized world.

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Illustration of South African and Iranian naval ships in False Bay exercises, overlaid with US Embassy criticism of Iran's involvement.
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US embassy criticises Iran's participation in South African naval drill

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The US embassy in Pretoria has condemned South Africa for allowing Iran to join naval exercises in False Bay, despite government orders to exclude it. Officials labeled Iran a state sponsor of terror, arguing the move undermines regional stability. South Africa has urged Iran to permit peaceful protests amid its crackdown on dissent.

South Africa has declared Israel's chargé d’affaires persona non grata, prompting Israel to reciprocate by expelling a South African diplomat. This tit-for-tat action highlights the deepening rift between the two nations over the Gaza conflict. Experts describe it as a symptom of an ongoing ideological war.

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South Africa has called on the United Nations Security Council to urgently convene over the US military strikes in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Pretoria views the action as a clear violation of the UN Charter, prohibiting the use of force against a sovereign state's integrity. The government warns that such interventions historically breed instability.

Amid global tensions that could spark World War III, Indonesia faces criticism for its passive stance on conflicts like the US attack on Venezuela and China's threats to Taiwan. Analysts warn that Indonesia's geographic position makes it vulnerable to involvement in major conflicts. The Prabowo Subianto government is seen as overly cautious to avoid sending wrong signals to strategic partners.

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The United States is boycotting South Africa's G20 Leaders' Summit, citing discredited allegations about attacks on white Afrikaners and objections to what it calls a diversity and climate-focused agenda. The unprecedented absence of the world's largest economy, alongside other no‑shows by leaders from Argentina, China and Russia for varying reasons, has cast a shadow over the gathering in Johannesburg.

Following the U.S. military's January 3, 2026, capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores for drug charges, international backlash intensified. South Africa, BRICS nations, and others decried the operation as a sovereignty violation, while Europe offered mixed responses and Trump issued fresh threats against other countries.

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After strong gains in 2025, South African markets enter 2026 with increased volatility and a shift toward strategic diversification. Experts warn of fewer easy opportunities as global trends like US dollar weakness fade. Local equities and bonds may face challenges amid economic divides.

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