Analysts project year-end inflation at 6.32% and rates at 12.25%

The Banco de la República released its Monthly Survey of Economists' Expectations, forecasting year-end inflation at 6.32% and interest rates at 12.25%. These projections mark an upward revision from March. Experts anticipate a gradual moderation in subsequent years.

The Banco de la República published the results of its Monthly Survey of Economists' Expectations. The poll indicates year-end inflation at 6.32%, up from the 5.45% projected in March. For November, the forecast rose from 6.26% to 6.32%, with 5.70% expected in March 2027 and 4.23% in March 2028.

For inflation excluding food, analysts project 5.45% in April and 6.21% by year-end. Excluding food and regulated items, the cost of living is seen reaching 5.84% in April and peaking at 6.31% in December, settling at 4.60% by April 2028.

On monetary policy, the interest rate is expected to stand at 12.25%, above the previous month's 11.75% estimate. It would decline to 10.25% by December next year, signaling potential moderation in the current cycle.

These expectations highlight ongoing dynamics between the National Government and the Banco de la República's Board of Directors.

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Banco de la República board announcing 100 basis point interest rate hike to 10.25% due to inflation from minimum wage increase, with concerned Finance Minister.
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Banco de la República hikes interest rate to 10.25% amid inflation surge and minimum wage controversy

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Colombia's Banco de la República raised its intervention rate by 100 basis points to 10.25%—the highest in over a year—in its first 2026 board meeting, citing persistent inflation above 5% for nearly six months and unanchored expectations from a 23.8% minimum wage hike decreed by President Petro's government. The decision, with a split 4-2-1 vote, drew market surprise and government criticism over economic contraction risks.

The latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) from the Banco Central has raised inflation expectations for March and the rest of 2026. Consultancies forecast 3.0% for March, with an annual projection of 29.1%. They also updated estimates for the dollar, GDP, and unemployment.

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Colombia's financial market anticipates that the Banco de la República will raise its interest rate at the January 30, 2026 meeting, according to a Citi survey. Out of 25 consulted entities, 17 expect an adjustment to 9.75%, while only five foresee it staying at 9.5%. This outlook is driven by the minimum wage increase and inflation projected at 5.8%.

According to the Central Bank's Market Expectations Survey (REM), analysts project a gradual rise in the official exchange rate starting April 2026. The median estimate places the dollar at $1.452 in April, with moderate monthly increases. This adjustment will depend on inflation, economic policies, and external factors.

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Dane reported that Colombia's annual inflation for March 2026 reached 5.56%, up from 5.29% in February. This is the highest rate since September 2024 at 5.81%. Year-to-date inflation for the first quarter stood at 3.07%.

Building on Dane's initial report of 5.29% annual inflation for February 2026—below January's 5.35% and market expectations around 5.5%—Anif analysis credits a $500-per-gallon gasoline price reduction as the main factor. Without it, inflation would have accelerated to 5.38%. Services and food exerted upward pressure, offset by regulated price relief.

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South Africa's consumer price index averaged 3.2% in 2025, down from 4.4% the previous year, staying within the Reserve Bank's target range. Inflation rose slightly to 3.6% in December, but economists remain optimistic due to factors like fuel price reductions and a stronger rand. The overall trend signals progress in managing price pressures.

 

 

 

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