A new study warns that even advanced geoengineering techniques like Stratospheric Aerosol Injection may fail to protect wine grapes, coffee, and cacao crops from climate change impacts. While the method could cool the planet, it does not stabilize rainfall and humidity crucial for these crops. Only a few growing regions might see benefits, leaving most producers vulnerable.
Scientists have published findings in Environmental Research Letters indicating that futuristic climate interventions cannot fully safeguard key agricultural products from global warming. The study, led by Ariel L. Morrison and colleagues, examines Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), a geoengineering approach that releases reflective particles into the upper atmosphere to mimic volcanic cooling effects and reduce surface temperatures.
Researchers modeled conditions from 2036 to 2045 across 18 major growing regions for wine grapes in western Europe, coffee in South America, and cacao in West Africa. SAI successfully lowered temperatures but proved ineffective at moderating rainfall, humidity, and disease risks. As a result, only six of the 18 regions showed significant improvements in crop suitability compared to scenarios without intervention.
Unpredictable weather patterns remain a major hurdle. "Reducing temperature with SAI alone isn't enough," explained co-author Dr. Ariel Morrison. She noted that cacao, while more heat-tolerant than coffee or grapes, is highly susceptible to pests and diseases exacerbated by high temperatures, rainfall, and humidity. Natural climate variability further complicates outcomes, leading to inconsistent yields even under SAI.
Dr. Morrison emphasized that SAI offers only temporary relief from heat stress in select areas and cannot serve as a long-term solution. "SAI climate intervention may offer temporary relief from rising temperatures in some regions, but it is not a guaranteed fix for the challenges facing luxury crop farming," she said. The authors call for adaptation strategies, investment in resilient practices, and global cooperation to protect these crops and the economies dependent on them.
These crops support millions of farmers worldwide, and their instability threatens local livelihoods amid intensifying climate shifts.