Following projections of around 5.2% for year-end 2025, Colombia's National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) reported actual annual inflation of 5.1% for December 2025, down 10 basis points from December 2024. This below-expectation figure underscores persistent pressures in housing, services, and food amid minimum wage hikes, as the central bank eyes interest rate moves.
The Dane announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 at 5.1% year-over-year, versus 5.2% in December 2024 and below Citi's November survey of 5.19%. This marks a modest disinflation slowdown from earlier months, with the annual low at 4.82% in June.
Key drivers included restaurants and hotels (7.91%), education (7.36%), health (7.2%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (6.37%), and transport (5.35%). Housing and services contributed 1.48 percentage points, led by rents, while electricity eased. Non-alcoholic food and beverages added 0.95 points, and restaurants/hotels 0.87. Monthly CPI rose 0.27%, driven by holiday-related transport and dining.
City variations: Bucaramanga (5.78%), Pereira (5.77%), Bogotá (5.41%); lowest in Valledupar (3.49%), Santa Marta (3.64%), Montería (3.92%).
Still above the Banco de la República's 3% target—and extending misses projected for a sixth year—this fuels expectations of 50-75 basis point rate hikes in January 2026, amid a 23.7% minimum wage rise. Corficolombiana's César Pabón cautioned: "With minimum wage impacts, 2026 outlook worsens; expect 50 bps hikes, possibly 75 bps." December 2026 forecasts average 4.64%, with 3% target eyed by 2030.
