The latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) from the Banco Central has raised inflation expectations for March and the rest of 2026. Consultancies forecast 3.0% for March, with an annual projection of 29.1%. They also updated estimates for the dollar, GDP, and unemployment.
The Banco Central released its latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM), where participating consultancies revised inflation projections upward. For March, they estimate 3.0%, with core inflation at 2.9%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous REM. The official INDEC data will be released on Tuesday, April 14.
Monthly expectations decline gradually: 2.6% in April, 2.3% in May, 2.0% in June and July, and 1.8% in August and September. The full-year 2026 inflation forecast is 29.1%, 3.1 points higher than in the prior survey.
For the dollar, the average projection places it at $1,420 in April and $1,700 by year-end, with a 17.4% interannual variation. GDP would grow 1.3% in the first quarter, 0.8% in the second, and 0.7% in the third, ending 2026 at 3.3%, above the 2025 average.
Unemployment is projected at 7.6% in the first quarter and 7.3% in the fourth, below the 7.5% in Q4 2025 per INDEC. Other estimates include a wholesale interest rate (TAMAR) of 26.8% TNA in April and 23.4% in December, a trade surplus of US$14,114 million, and a primary fiscal surplus of $16.0 billones.
