HDE consumer barometer hits lowest level since 2024

Germany's HDE consumer barometer dropped to 94.85 points in April, its lowest since February 2024. Consumers anticipate rising prices and interest rates, weighing on private spending. The plunge is linked to the Iran war and surging energy costs.

In Düsseldorf, Germany's HDE consumer barometer signals a sharp downturn in consumer sentiment. Calculated monthly by the Handelsblatt Research Institute for the Handelsverband HDE based on a survey of around 1600 households, the April reading of 94.85 points is the lowest since February 2024. Expectations for the business cycle and personal incomes have worsened.

Savings propensity is declining as households redirect funds to cover elevated energy costs. Consumers foresee increases in prices and interest rates, pressuring private consumption.

The mood shift stems from energy price surges triggered by the Iran war. Since late February, following attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, diesel prices have risen by about 50 cents per liter and super fuel by around 30 cents.

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Illustration depicting rising fuel prices at a Seoul gas station amid South Korea's 2.6% consumer inflation surge from oil shock in Strait of Hormuz.
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South Korea's consumer prices accelerate to 2.6% in April amid oil shock

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South Korea's consumer prices rose 2.6 percent year-on-year in April, up from March's 2.2 percent and the fastest pace in 21 months, driven by soaring fuel costs from the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption. Government data confirmed the figures.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 47.6 in April, its lowest level on record, after falling 5.7 points from the previous month. The plunge, nearly 11 percent, was largely attributed to the outbreak of the Iran conflict, which fueled inflation fears. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose sharply to 4.8 percent from 3.8 percent in March.

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The Ifo Institute's employment barometer fell to 91.3 points in April, the lowest since December last year. Companies plan more layoffs than hires, especially in industry and trade. Ifo's Klaus Wohlrabe warns of ongoing pressure on the job market.

Global financial markets reacted on Monday to renewed surges in oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continuing the economic ripple effects first seen after the Iran conflict and Hormuz blockade earlier this year.

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A weekly survey by the American Association of Individual Investors showed bullish sentiment among respondents dropping sharply to 30.4 percent. The figure marks the lowest level recorded so far in 2026.

The Bank of France has cut its GDP growth forecasts to 0.9% for 2026 and 0.8% for 2027 due to surging energy prices from the Middle East conflict. This adjustment is based on a main scenario of temporary hydrocarbon price increases. The bank also expects inflation at 1.7% this year.

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Oil prices are falling on hopes for an end to the war with Iran while the US stock market holds near its records. Brent crude dropped 3.2 percent to $97.98 per barrel.

 

 

 

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