HDE consumer barometer hits lowest level since 2024

Germany's HDE consumer barometer dropped to 94.85 points in April, its lowest since February 2024. Consumers anticipate rising prices and interest rates, weighing on private spending. The plunge is linked to the Iran war and surging energy costs.

In Düsseldorf, Germany's HDE consumer barometer signals a sharp downturn in consumer sentiment. Calculated monthly by the Handelsblatt Research Institute for the Handelsverband HDE based on a survey of around 1600 households, the April reading of 94.85 points is the lowest since February 2024. Expectations for the business cycle and personal incomes have worsened.

Savings propensity is declining as households redirect funds to cover elevated energy costs. Consumers foresee increases in prices and interest rates, pressuring private consumption.

The mood shift stems from energy price surges triggered by the Iran war. Since late February, following attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, diesel prices have risen by about 50 cents per liter and super fuel by around 30 cents.

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Illustration depicting rising fuel prices at a Seoul gas station amid South Korea's 2.6% consumer inflation surge from oil shock in Strait of Hormuz.
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South Korea's consumer prices accelerate to 2.6% in April amid oil shock

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South Korea's consumer prices rose 2.6 percent year-on-year in April, up from March's 2.2 percent and the fastest pace in 21 months, driven by soaring fuel costs from the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption. Government data confirmed the figures.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 47.6 in April, its lowest level on record, after falling 5.7 points from the previous month. The plunge, nearly 11 percent, was largely attributed to the outbreak of the Iran conflict, which fueled inflation fears. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose sharply to 4.8 percent from 3.8 percent in March.

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The Ifo Institute's employment barometer fell to 91.3 points in April, the lowest since December last year. Companies plan more layoffs than hires, especially in industry and trade. Ifo's Klaus Wohlrabe warns of ongoing pressure on the job market.

Ruotsin inflaatio voi nousta 1–2 prosenttiyksikköä tänä vuonna Lähi-idän sodan seurauksena, sanoo professori emeritus Lars Calmfors. Hän viittaa energian hinnan nousuun sen jälkeen, kun Iran sulki Hormuzinsalmen. Elintarvikkeiden arvonlisäveron alennus puolestaan lieventää vaikutusta.

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Rising fuel prices from the ongoing conflict in Iran are prompting households and industries worldwide to reduce oil consumption, with experts suggesting some changes may endure. The International Energy Agency has noted demand destruction, forecasting a drop of 420,000 barrels per day this year. Asia, hit hardest by supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, is accelerating shifts toward renewables and electric technologies.

South Korea's consumer prices rose 3.1 percent in May from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 26 months, driven by surging fuel prices amid the Middle East war.

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Most French banks are raising their mortgage rates for April amid uncertainty from the war in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. French 10-year state bond yields hit nearly 3.90% on Friday, a level unseen since 2009. Philippe Crevel of the Cercle de l’Épargne highlights the close link between these yields and home loan rates.

 

 

 

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