HDE-Konsumbarometer fällt auf Tiefststand seit 2024

Das HDE-Konsumbarometer ist im April auf 94,85 Punkte abgerutscht, den tiefsten Wert seit Februar 2024. Verbraucher erwarten steigende Preise und Zinsen, was den privaten Konsum belastet. Der Einbruch wird auf den Iran-Krieg und höhere Energiepreise zurückgeführt.

Düsseldorf. Deutschlands Verbraucher haben ihre Konjunkturerwartungen schlagartig verschlechtert, wie das monatlich vom Handelsblatt Research Institute für den Handelsverband HDE berechnete Konsumbarometer zeigt. Die Indexzahl von 94,85 Punkten markiert den geringsten Stand seit Februar 2024. Auch die Einschätzung zur Einkommensentwicklung ist negativ.

Die Sparneigung sinkt, da Haushalte höhere Energiekosten decken, indem sie weniger zurücklegen. Die repräsentative Umfrage umfasst rund 1600 Haushalte. Verbraucher rechnen mit Preis- und Zinssteigerungen, was den Konsum dämpft.

Auslöser des Stimmungseinbruchs sind die durch den Iran-Krieg bedingten Energiepreisanstiege. Seit Ende Februar, als die USA und Israel den Iran angriffen, ist Diesel um gut 50 Cent teurer und Super um rund 30 Cent.

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Illustration of rising fuel prices at a German gas station amid Iran war escalation, showing shocked drivers and political calls for intervention.
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Oil prices rise up to 14 percent due to Iran war

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The escalation of the Iran war is driving up oil prices and causing noticeable increases at German gas stations. Diesel now costs an average of 2.04 euros per liter, gasoline 1.94 euros. Politicians are calling for government interventions against rising fuel costs.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 47.6 in April, its lowest level on record, after falling 5.7 points from the previous month. The plunge, nearly 11 percent, was largely attributed to the outbreak of the Iran conflict, which fueled inflation fears. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose sharply to 4.8 percent from 3.8 percent in March.

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German exports declined by 2.3% in January compared to the previous month, following a 4.0% increase in December. Imports dropped even more sharply by 5.9%, which widened the trade surplus to €21.2 billion, the highest since the summer. This data contributes to a challenging beginning for the German economy in the new year.

One in four South Korean households spent more than their disposable income in the fourth quarter of 2025, pushing the share of deficit-running households to the highest level in six years, government data showed. The ratio reached 25 percent for the October-December period, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2019. Market analysts attributed this to prolonged high inflation straining household finances.

Von KI berichtet

South Korea's consumer prices rose 2 percent year-on-year in January, marking the slowest pace in five months. The slowdown was partly due to stable petroleum product prices, as international crude oil prices fell, according to government data. However, prices for some agricultural and livestock products continued to surge sharply.

Global markets tumbled as US-Iran tensions and prolonged Israeli conflict drove oil prices higher. Asian shares and futures dipped, with investors preparing for extended fighting. The inflationary pressures have reduced expectations for central bank rate cuts.

Von KI berichtet

Inflation expectations are increasing in US breakeven rates and eurozone swap rates, influenced by recent statements from President Trump. Oil prices have stabilized alongside reduced anxiety in risk assets, yet concerns persist over widening spreads. Analysts highlight these trends as problematic amid ongoing economic conflicts.

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