Japan maintains historically low crime rates, yet public perceptions of safety are declining. Factors like demographic shifts, social media influence, and immigration growth contribute to this disconnect. Examples from Adachi Ward and Kawaguchi highlight the trend.
Japan's recorded Penal Code offenses peaked at about 2.85 million cases in 2002 before dropping to around 560,000 by 2021. The figure rose slightly to 737,679 in 2024, a 4.9% increase from the prior year, likely due to post-pandemic activity resumption—still far below early 2000s levels.
A National Police Agency survey in October 2024, polling 5,000 people aged 15 and older, found 76.6% believed public safety had worsened over the past decade, up 4.8 points from the previous year. Some 69% cited telephone scams like 'ore-ore' fraud and investment schemes as key concerns.
Criminology professor Koichi Hamai at Ryukoku University's law school attributes the long-term crime drop to falling birthrates. 'Crime follows an age curve: it starts in the teens, peaks around 16, and tapers off,' he says. Juvenile delinquency has plunged since the early 2000s, leading to youth facility consolidations. However, post-COVID, 'yami baito'—underground jobs advertised on social media—have spurred fraud and robberies targeting seniors.
In Tokyo's Adachi Ward, particularly Takenotsuka, crimes have declined since their early 2000s peak, yet a 2021 survey showed 68% rating local safety poorly. Seiji Okoshi, director of Adachi's design and planning division, notes, 'Crimes have decreased compared to the past, but newer residents feel more insecure.' Longtime locals perceive greater safety, while the area's nightlife and visible foreign communities sustain a rough image.
In Kawaguchi, Saitama Prefecture, foreign residents number 48,000, or 8% of the population, mainly from China, Vietnam, and the Philippines, with a notable Kurdish group of about 1,500. Crime rates have fallen over the decade, but a July 2023 disturbance outside a hospital after a stabbing involving Kurds fueled online backlash. In February 2024, the Japan Kurdish Cultural Association, led then by Wakkas Cikan, sued an anti-Kurd rally organizer, stating, 'This is especially important so children can live safely and study with peace of mind.'
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, in an October 24 policy speech, acknowledged, 'Labor shortages from population decline mean sectors rely on foreign workers... However, some foreign nationals' illegal activities or rule violations have created public anxiety or a sense of unfairness.' Japan's foreign population doubled to 3.77 million by 2024 (3% of total), but foreign-involved arrests fell from 14,786 in 2005 to 9,726 in 2023, or 5.3% of all such cases.
Associate professor Tatsuhiko Matsuda at Matsuyama University explains that perceived safety 'deviates from statistics, rising or falling with personal experience and proximity,' amplified by social media. He references 1970s 'mean world syndrome,' where negative media exposure skews views of danger, creating echo chambers.
In Takenotsuka, a 2023 community cafe called Mintopo, opened by Adachi Ward and the Urban Renaissance Agency, hosts events like music concerts to foster ties. Operator Ai Hanajima, initially wary due to media portrayals, says, 'It's no different from other places—convenient and comfortable.' Such initiatives may help align perceptions with reality.
