Dario Durigan, executive secretary of the Ministry of Finance, directs to anticipate a stricter expense block in the 2026 Budget to address pressures from reducing the INSS queue. This aims to signal realistic public accounts management in an election year. Analysts estimate a block between R$ 6 billion and R$ 10 billion to meet the fiscal target.
The Ministry of Finance's fiscal strategy for the 2026 Budget involves saving resources now to manage the rise in mandatory expenses tied to the INSS queue reduction program. According to sources heard by Folha, Dario Durigan, who is set to succeed Fernando Haddad (PT) at the helm of the ministry, instructed the team to anticipate a tougher expense block in the first bimonthly revenue and expense evaluation report, due by March 24 as per the LDO.
Haddad confirmed on March 10 that he will leave the position next week to run in the October elections, with Durigan as successor. The block affects discretionary spending, such as operations and investments, when mandatory expenses like pension benefits grow beyond expectations. Finance technicians state there is no need for contingency at present, which applies when revenues fall short of projections.
The INSS queue reached 3.07 million claims in January, growing about 10% monthly since last May. President Lula, who promised to zero the queue in 2022, demands its reduction in an election year where he seeks reelection. The largest monthly reduction was 156,000 in August 2023, and the stock remained above 2 million in 2025.
In February, a decree forecasted savings of over R$ 40 billion to achieve a primary surplus of 0.25% of GDP, equivalent to R$ 34.3 billion. Revenues include a 10% cut in tax benefits, but there are pressures for spending expansion and release of parliamentary amendments, 65% of which are mandatory and due by the end of the first semester.
The queue also poses an electoral challenge for Lula, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) advancing in polls and tying in the second round. Compared to Jair Bolsonaro's peak of 2.5 million in July 2019, the current issue is larger and impacts public finances, helping so far to contain the deficit but requiring more funds for acceleration.
