KB, Shinhan, Hana and Woori are expected to stay resilient through the second half of 2026 thanks to strong risk controls and government support.
Rena Kwok, senior credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote in a contribution published July 18 that the four banks will maintain sound capital buffers despite economic and policy shifts. Gross NPL ratios are projected to average 0.38-0.42 percent, comparable to 2025 levels.
CET1 ratios averaged over 15 percent in the first half of 2026, well above the regulatory minimum of 9-11.5 percent. Eased capital rules and steady earnings are expected to offset modest pressure from the productive-finance initiative.
The won's 5 percent depreciation against the dollar through June 10 poses only limited risk. Sensitivity analysis shows each 10 won weakening reduces CET1 by 2-3 basis points, cushioned by contained foreign-currency exposure.
