In a Le Monde op-ed, sociologist Serge Guérin and economist Vincent Touzé highlight the demographic imbalance straining France's health insurance system, akin to retirement pressures. People over 60, 28% of the population, account for over 50% of health spending. To address a projected 23 billion euro deficit in 2025, they advocate favoring prevention to shift behaviors and cut costs.
Demographic aging is unbalancing the health system much like the pension system, argue sociologist Serge Guérin and economist Vincent Touzé. When social security was created in 1945, there were six workers per retiree; today the ratio is 1.7, potentially dropping to 1.4 by 2070. Workers fund most health insurance benefits (150 billion euros out of 252 billion via social contributions and CSG), while those over 60, 28% of the population, account for over 50% of total spending.
The health insurance deficit will reach 23 billion euros in 2025, up from 17.2 billion in 2024, amid demographic pressures. To counter this, the authors propose shifting behaviors through prevention and influencing medical consumption. « This virtuous dynamic would improve healthy life expectancy and reduce spending », they write. The approach should avoid moral lectures or gimmicky campaigns, opting instead for tailored policies.
Rising chronic diseases, mental health issues, and loss of autonomy are driving up costs, which rise exponentially with age. Per Drees data from 2021, average annual spending ranges from 1,114 euros for under-20s to 8,529 euros for those over 80. Thus, those over 60 concentrate over 50% of expenditures despite being a smaller demographic share.