A new survey of banking professionals reveals expectations of unexpected advances in artificial intelligence and digital assets shaping the industry next year. Conducted by American Banker, the research highlights concerns over preparedness amid economic uncertainty. Respondents anticipate exponential AI impacts and a stronger role for stablecoins.
American Banker's 2026 Predictions report, based on responses from 174 executives at banks, credit unions, neobanks, and payments firms surveyed in October and November 2025, outlines key shifts anticipated for the coming year.
Advancements in AI topped the list of surprises, with 20% of respondents viewing it as the most unexpected change. Optimism centers on agentic AI enabling tailored client products and enhanced marketing, though fears persist about AI tools boosting fraud and losses. One participant noted, "AI will have a bigger impact [on the banking industry than] expected. It already has [had a great impact] but it will be exponential" through 2026.
Supporting this, the National Institute of Standards and Technology recently released a preliminary draft of its AI cybersecurity risk profile to guide banks in integrating AI securely. The framework distinguishes between defending against AI-enabled attacks and protecting AI systems themselves. As the Cybersecurity Coalition emphasized in a March 14 letter to NIST, "It will be essential to keep in mind that defending against AI-enabled attacks and defending AI-enabled systems are two distinct scenarios and should be treated as such."
Stablecoins and cryptocurrencies ranked second, cited by 15% as a potential shock. Bankers foresee a "resurgence of bitcoin in real-time payments" or stablecoins gaining a "much stronger presence" than anticipated. A respondent warned, "I don't know how hot it is, but if Congress does not fix the loophole for payment of interest on stablecoins, that would be a real game changer for banks, especially community banks. It has the potential to disintermediate our funding sources."
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is advancing a proposed rule under the GENIUS Act, allowing FDIC-supervised banks to issue payment stablecoins via subsidiaries. Acting Chair Travis Hill stated, "In the months ahead, we expect to issue a proposed rule to establish the statutorily mandated capital, liquidity and risk management requirements for subsidiaries of FDIC-supervised institutions approved to issue payment stablecoins, along with other GENIUS Act-related work streams."
Economic uncertainty came third at 11%, with divided views on the housing market: some predict improvements under the current administration, while others fear a recession pricing out first-time buyers. One executive expressed distrust, saying, "I do not trust the current administration to execute well on common-sense ideas... I fear the lack of well-thought-out guidance combined with a recession will bring risk into the industry and lead to bank closures and many more mergers."
Lower-ranked predictions include major regulatory changes (10%), financial risks (9%), M&A spikes (9%), and rising fraud threats (8%).
