Republicans are expressing growing concerns about the 2026 midterm elections following shifts in recent special elections and unfavorable polling data. Special races in traditionally Republican strongholds like Texas, Mississippi, and Georgia have trended toward Democrats, signaling potential vulnerabilities. Market predictions and surveys indicate Democrats could regain control of both the House and Senate.
The worries within the Republican Party center on early indicators from post-2024 election developments. In a Texas state Senate race, a district that Donald Trump carried by 17 points in 2024 shifted 14 points toward Democrats, resulting in a 31-point swing. Similar trends appear in special elections across deep-red areas in Texas, Mississippi, and Georgia, where results are leaning Democratic.
Betting markets reflect pessimism for Republicans: 63% predict the GOP will hold the Senate, while 37% foresee a Democratic takeover—the least favorable odds for Republicans this cycle. For the House, 78% of market participants expect Democrats to win control, with only 22% backing Republican retention. A Harvard-Harris poll underscores these challenges, showing Democrats leading by 4 points on the generic congressional ballot.
Senate races pose particular risks for Republicans. In Maine, incumbent Susan Collins is now an underdog according to betting markets. North Carolina's seat, vacated by Thom Tillis, tilts toward Democrats, and in Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown is favored to reclaim his position. Other competitive seats include Alaska, Iowa, and Texas, where Democrats could make gains in a tough year, potentially reaching 50 Senate seats.
Economic perceptions offer some Republican hope but highlight communication gaps. The Harvard-Harris poll found 56% of Americans believe the economy is shrinking, though it is not, and 66% think inflation exceeds 3%, which is inaccurate. Only 38% view the economy as on the right track, with opinions split evenly on its strength.
Trump's immigration policies remain a strong point, with 51% approving his response to anti-ICE protests and 73% supporting deportations of criminal undocumented immigrants. Border czar Tom Homan recently told Minneapolis officials, “Give us your criminals,” focusing efforts on high-priority targets. However, broader rhetoric on mass deportations has drawn criticism for poor public relations, as 67% oppose sanctuary city policies and 60% accuse Democrats of encouraging resistance to immigration enforcement.
Democrats' strategies in cities like Minneapolis aim to counter Trump's immigration advantage, portraying enforcement as indiscriminate. Republicans urge better messaging on tariffs and interest rates to address economic anxieties tied to inflation fears.
