Fuel rollback forecasts widen: Diesel down P24-P26/L for April 21

Updated industry estimates project even larger diesel cuts of P24 to P26 per liter and gasoline P2.50 to P3.50 per liter starting April 21, up from earlier P17-P19 projections, as the global oil war premium continues to unwind—extending relief from the April 14 rollbacks amid the 2026 fuel crisis.

MANILA, Philippines — Forecasts for this week's fuel price rollbacks have widened significantly, with diesel now expected to drop by P24 to P26 per liter and gasoline by P2.50 to P3.50 per liter, effective Tuesday, April 21.

The revisions, based on full-week trading data as of April 18, reflect further easing of the war premium in global oil prices tied to stabilizing Middle East tensions. This marks an increase from initial projections earlier in the week of P17 to P19 per liter for diesel.

Retailers are set to announce final figures on Monday, April 20—the second straight week of major cuts following April 14 reductions that brought Metro Manila diesel to around P147 per liter and gasoline to P116.

Prices, while falling, remain elevated above pre-crisis levels as part of the broader 2026 Philippine fuel price swings documented in ongoing coverage.

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Realistic photo of a Philippine gas station celebrating fuel price rollbacks to P23 per liter for diesel, with happy drivers amid jeepneys and price signs.
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Fuel prices roll back up to P23 per liter starting April 14 after weeks of Middle East-driven hikes

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Oil firms confirmed price rollbacks effective 6 a.m. Tuesday, April 14, matching Department of Energy projections: diesel down P20.89 to P23 per liter, gasoline P4.43 to P4.50, and kerosene P8.50. The cuts end surges of over P100 on diesel since late February's Middle East crisis. President Marcos suspended excise taxes on LPG and kerosene, while a jeepney subsidy launches.

Following last week's rollbacks, diesel prices are forecast to drop another P17 to P19 per liter and gasoline P2 to P3 per liter starting April 21, potentially taking diesel below P130, as Middle East tensions ease further with a holding ceasefire.

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Fuel prices in the Philippines will see another round of rollbacks on Tuesday, April 21, led by Shell Pilipinas with cuts deeper than initial estimates. The changes take effect at 6 a.m. as Middle East conflict pressures ease.

Major oil firms in the Philippines are raising fuel prices again today, with diesel and kerosene marking their seventh straight week of increases. The hikes include P1 per liter for diesel and P0.60 per liter for gasoline and kerosene. This occurs amid volatile global oil prices due to geopolitical tensions.

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South African petrol prices will rise by R3.06 per litre to R23.25 inland from midnight on 1 April, while diesel reaches a record R26.11 per litre after a R7.51 increase. The hike stems from global oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel amid the Iran war and a weakened rand. A temporary R3 per litre reduction in the fuel levy cushions the impact.

Philippine fuel supply may last until the second week of May with one million barrels expected soon, according to the Department of Energy. Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said the average supply stood at 45 days as of March 20, down from 55-57 days when the Middle East war began nearly a month ago.

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A conflict in the Middle East is expected to drive up oil prices, leading to higher fuel costs in South Africa from April. Economists predict petrol prices could rise by R5 to R8 per litre, impacting commuters, logistics and food prices. Retailers warn of increased transport and insurance costs amid shipping disruptions.

 

 

 

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