Talk of digital yuan challenging dollar misses real power shift

China is building parallel financial capabilities rather than directly challenging the dollar's status as the global reserve currency. The e-CNY has become one of the world's most advanced central bank digital currency experiments, processing over 3.4 billion transactions worth about US$2.3 trillion by the end of 2025.

Over the past few years, the e-CNY has evolved into one of the world’s most advanced central bank digital currency (CBDC) experiments—and its largest live CBDC project. It had processed more than 3.4 billion transactions worth about US$2.3 trillion by the end of 2025, an increase of over 800 per cent since 2023, according to the Washington-based Atlantic Council.

This rapid expansion highlights the digital yuan’s growing, scalable use across provinces and the widening range of payment scenarios.

All these developments point to a strategic focus that is often misunderstood. China is not attempting a frontal assault on the dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency. Instead, it is working to modernise and partially reconfigure the “plumbing” of the global financial system. Initiatives like Project mBridge support international payments linked to Hong Kong and the Belt and Road Initiative.

The piece argues that China is merely building parallel capabilities. Whether the systems remain complementary or become competitive depends on how others respond, reflecting efforts to enhance digital currency influence in emerging markets without upending the existing order.

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Analysts say many yuan transactions are now routed through China’s own global payment system CIPS, which often does not appear in traditional data sets. This could explain the gap between Beijing’s claim that the yuan is the world’s third-largest payment currency and figures from trackers like Swift.

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During China's 2026 national two sessions, Hong Kong's role as the world's third-largest financial center drew attention. Australian scholar Warwick Powell discussed with Hong Kong CPPCC member Judith Yu how the city can leverage its 'super-connector' status to align with the 15th Five-Year Plan. Yu highlighted innovation, technology, and financial empowerment to boost Greater Bay Area cooperation.

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