Bank of Japan governor signals further rate hikes with confidence in price goal

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled the likelihood of further interest rate hikes next year, expressing growing confidence that the central bank is nearing its sustainable 2% price stability target. In a speech Thursday at a conference hosted by business lobby Keidanren, Ueda noted that the goal, accompanied by wage increases, is steadily approaching. His remarks underscore investor expectations that the bank will continue hikes even after raising borrowing costs to the highest level since 1995 last Friday.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, in what are likely his final public remarks of the year, addressed a conference hosted by the business lobby Keidanren on Thursday. He projected increasing confidence that the central bank is approaching its 2% price stability target, supported by wage growth. "The achievement of the 2% price stability target, accompanied by wage increases, is steadily approaching," Ueda said. He further noted, "Amid tightening labor market conditions, business behavior has shifted significantly on setting wages and prices in recent years."

These comments highlight investor expectations that the Bank of Japan is not finished with rate adjustments, following its hike last Friday to the highest borrowing costs since 1995. Traders are scanning for signals on the timing of the next increase, and Ueda's tone appeared slightly more hawkish than in his press conference after last week's policy decision. The speech underscores evolving dynamics in Japan's economy, where a tight labor market is driving changes in wage and price strategies, fostering sustainable inflation expectations.

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Following its December 19-20 policy meeting, the Bank of Japan raised its rate to 0.75%, prompting yen fluctuations, sustained high inflation, bank rate adjustments, and measured government support amid U.S. tariff concerns and shunto wage prospects.

A former executive director of the Bank of Japan predicts up to four interest rate hikes by 2027. The central bank is widely expected to raise borrowing costs to 0.75% on December 19, its first move since January, with three more increases potentially following. Governor Kazuo Ueda will likely indicate that the cycle is not over even after this hike, according to Hideo Hayakawa.

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The Bank of Japan decided on December 19 to raise its short-term policy rate target from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking a 30-year high since 1995 and the first increase since January. The move anticipates wage hikes and aims to achieve the 2% inflation target amid elevated inflation and a weak yen.

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Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.230 percent in Tokyo trading on January 19, 2026, reaching its highest level since February 1999 in 27 years. The increase stems from concerns about worsening fiscal health ahead of a House of Representatives election. Pledges for consumption tax cuts by major parties are raising fears of more bond issuance.

Hints that the United States might join Japan in supporting the yen have captured the attention of traders and investors. While solo interventions by Japan were seen as having limited impact, this development has altered market dynamics.

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The fiscal 2026 budget under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has gained support from the Democratic Party for the People, raising prospects of passage in its original form. However, as the first budget with debt-servicing expenses exceeding ¥30 trillion, insufficient curbs on social security spending have failed to allay market concerns. Rising interest rates pose a risk.

 

 

 

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