Tesla's Megapack Deal with SPIE: Boost for Energy Diversification Amid EV Headwinds

Following the recently announced three-year framework agreement with SPIE for Megapack deployments across Europe (see prior coverage), Tesla is advancing its grid storage ambitions. This partnership supports network stability and renewable integration, helping diversify from EVs amid market pressures.

The SPIE deal reinforces Tesla's energy segment as a higher-margin avenue, even as the company prioritizes robotaxis, AI software, and autonomy amid EV competition.

Key near-term focus remains on regulatory approvals for autonomous ride-hailing. Notably, the Delaware Supreme Court's reinstatement of Elon Musk's 2018 pay package sets ambitious benchmarks for production, software subscriptions, and robotaxi milestones, guiding execution on Tesla's roadmap.

Under optimistic projections, Tesla could reach $148.1 billion in revenue and $15.4 billion in earnings by 2028, reflecting 16.9% annual revenue growth and earnings expansion from $5.9 billion currently.

Analysts peg fair value at $391.35, suggesting 19% downside from current levels. Community sentiment varies widely, with estimates from $67 to over $2,700 among 214 Simply Wall St members, balancing EV challenges against energy and autonomy upside.

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Illustration of Tesla Megapack energy storage site with rising performance charts amid revenue dip, stock up, highlighting growth in energy business.
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Tesla's Record 2025 Energy Storage Deployments Offset First Annual Revenue Decline

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Tesla reported its first annual revenue decline in 2025, down 3% to $94.8 billion amid EV weakness, but its energy storage business hit a record 46.7 GWh deployments, driving 26.6% revenue growth to $12.8 billion with 29.8% margins. The segment's success highlighted a strategic pivot to AI, robotics, and energy, though 2026 faces margin pressures from competition and policy shifts. Shares rose 3% after hours.

France-based engineering firm SPIE has signed a three-year framework agreement with Tesla to standardize deployment of Megapack battery energy storage systems (BESS) in Europe, building on projects in the Netherlands, France, and Belgium, and expanding into Poland and Germany. Highlights include the $366 million, 1.4 GWh Mufasa facility in the Netherlands.

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Engineering firm SPIE and Tesla have signed a three-year agreement to expand their collaboration on battery energy storage systems across Europe. The deal covers ongoing projects including a major 1.4 GWh facility in the Netherlands. It aims to streamline deployments using Tesla's Megapack technology without setting volume targets.

Tesla is set to report its fourth-quarter electric vehicle deliveries on or around January 2, capping a second year of declining sales amid fierce competition. Despite a 25% stock rise in 2025, the company's high valuation raises doubts about its investment appeal. Investors are eyeing future products like the Cybercab and Optimus, but near-term challenges dominate.

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As 2025 draws to a close, Tesla's stock has risen 25.29% for the year despite recent dips and earnings misses. Analysts offer varied predictions, with bull cases highlighting AI-driven growth in robotaxis and robotics, while bears point to intensifying EV competition and eroding market share. The company's future hinges on executing ambitious plans in autonomy and beyond traditional vehicles.

Building on Friday's 2.1% climb to $445.01 amid AI market highs, Tesla investors await pivotal CPI data on Tuesday and a Federal Reserve meeting next week. Competitive pressures in autonomous tech, weak EV demand signals, and Q4 delivery figures heighten caution before January 28 earnings.

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Continuing coverage of Tesla's EV challenges (see Jan 5 Q4 miss analysis), UBS analyst Joseph Spak on January 5 maintained a 'sell' rating with $247 target, arguing AI ventures like robotaxi and Optimus are overvalued amid declining EV sales and slashed earnings forecasts—much upside already priced in despite tech progress.

 

 

 

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