Tesla shares closed at $485.40 on December 24, 2025, dipping slightly to around $484.62 after hours, as a new NHTSA investigation into Model 3 door releases weighed on sentiment. Despite lowered Q4 delivery forecasts, analysts raised price targets up to $551, emphasizing robotaxi and AI potential. A court victory reinstating Elon Musk's $140 billion pay package further boosted investor confidence.
On December 24, 2025, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) ended a holiday-shortened trading session at $485.40, with after-hours trading showing a modest decline to approximately $484.62. The stock traded in a range of $476.80 to $490.90 during the day, staying close to its 52-week high of $498.82. This resilience came despite headlines about a new investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) into emergency door release controls on about 179,071 Model Year 2022 Tesla Model 3 sedans. The probe, initiated following a petition, examines whether these controls are easily accessible in urgent situations, such as crashes. While not yet a recall, such investigations can lead to remedies if defects are confirmed, potentially affecting brand perception and regulatory scrutiny amid Tesla's push into autonomy.
Adding to the positive backdrop, the Delaware Supreme Court reversed a prior ruling, reinstating CEO Elon Musk's 2018 compensation package valued at over $140 billion. This performance-based plan, tied to market value and operational milestones, had been voided but was upheld as validly approved by shareholders, removing a key governance overhang.
Analysts remained optimistic despite trimming Q4 delivery estimates. UBS forecasted 415,000 vehicles, a 16% year-over-year decline, attributing weakness to the U.S. $7,500 EV tax credit expiration in September, which could see U.S. deliveries drop over 35% quarter-on-quarter. FactSet consensus stood at around 449,000, a 9.5% YoY drop. Globally, UBS projected 1.63 million units for 2025, down 9%, with 2026 volumes flat. Canaccord Genuity raised its price target to $551 from $482 while cutting deliveries, citing accelerating EV penetration in emerging markets and progress in Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi rollout. Other firms like Deutsche Bank, TD Cowen, Piper Sandler, and Wedbush set targets at $500, with Wedbush's high at $600. The average 12-month target was $385.34, implying downside from current levels, but bulls highlighted AI, robotaxi fleets, and Optimus humanoid robots as key valuation drivers.
Investors increasingly view Tesla as an AI and autonomy platform rather than just an automaker, with Q4 deliveries—once a major catalyst—now secondary to long-term narratives. Energy storage like Megapack also supports growth, though margins face pressure from competition and incentives. Markets reopen December 26 after Christmas closure, with focus on probe updates and delivery whispers.
