Tesla's Megapack Deal with SPIE: Boost for Energy Diversification Amid EV Headwinds

Following the recently announced three-year framework agreement with SPIE for Megapack deployments across Europe (see prior coverage), Tesla is advancing its grid storage ambitions. This partnership supports network stability and renewable integration, helping diversify from EVs amid market pressures.

The SPIE deal reinforces Tesla's energy segment as a higher-margin avenue, even as the company prioritizes robotaxis, AI software, and autonomy amid EV competition.

Key near-term focus remains on regulatory approvals for autonomous ride-hailing. Notably, the Delaware Supreme Court's reinstatement of Elon Musk's 2018 pay package sets ambitious benchmarks for production, software subscriptions, and robotaxi milestones, guiding execution on Tesla's roadmap.

Under optimistic projections, Tesla could reach $148.1 billion in revenue and $15.4 billion in earnings by 2028, reflecting 16.9% annual revenue growth and earnings expansion from $5.9 billion currently.

Analysts peg fair value at $391.35, suggesting 19% downside from current levels. Community sentiment varies widely, with estimates from $67 to over $2,700 among 214 Simply Wall St members, balancing EV challenges against energy and autonomy upside.

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Illustration of Tesla Megapack energy storage site with rising performance charts amid revenue dip, stock up, highlighting growth in energy business.
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Tesla's Record 2025 Energy Storage Deployments Offset First Annual Revenue Decline

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Tesla reported its first annual revenue decline in 2025, down 3% to $94.8 billion amid EV weakness, but its energy storage business hit a record 46.7 GWh deployments, driving 26.6% revenue growth to $12.8 billion with 29.8% margins. The segment's success highlighted a strategic pivot to AI, robotics, and energy, though 2026 faces margin pressures from competition and policy shifts. Shares rose 3% after hours.

France-based engineering firm SPIE has signed a three-year framework agreement with Tesla to standardize deployment of Megapack battery energy storage systems (BESS) in Europe, building on projects in the Netherlands, France, and Belgium, and expanding into Poland and Germany. Highlights include the $366 million, 1.4 GWh Mufasa facility in the Netherlands.

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Engineering firm SPIE and Tesla have signed a three-year agreement to expand their collaboration on battery energy storage systems across Europe. The deal covers ongoing projects including a major 1.4 GWh facility in the Netherlands. It aims to streamline deployments using Tesla's Megapack technology without setting volume targets.

Tesla shares closed at $485.40 on December 24, 2025, dipping slightly to around $484.62 after hours, as a new NHTSA investigation into Model 3 door releases weighed on sentiment. Despite lowered Q4 delivery forecasts, analysts raised price targets up to $551, emphasizing robotaxi and AI potential. A court victory reinstating Elon Musk's $140 billion pay package further boosted investor confidence.

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Tesla reported record third-quarter revenue of $28.1 billion, surpassing Wall Street expectations, driven by a rush to buy electric vehicles before a key tax credit expired. However, the company missed on earnings and margins, while sales in China plunged and a former executive warned of hurdles in autonomous driving progress. These developments highlight ongoing volatility for the electric vehicle maker.

Tesla's stock has delivered positive returns over the past year but trailed competitors like Rivian as of November 24, 2025. The company's shares rose that day, boosted by CEO Elon Musk's emphasis on AI chip capabilities, though revenue growth slipped into negative territory. Investors remain focused on Tesla's robotaxi potential as a key driver for 2026.

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Tesla is set to report its third-quarter 2025 earnings after market close on Wednesday, October 22, marking the start of the Magnificent Seven earnings season. The electric vehicle maker delivered 497,099 vehicles in the quarter, beating expectations amid a surge in stock performance. Investors are focusing on updates regarding robotaxis, humanoid robots, and energy storage amid projections of revenue growth but declining profitability.

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