Argentina's domestic consumption ended 2025 with a slight 1.3% uptick during the Christmas holidays, according to Salvador Femenia, CAME's Press Secretary. Yet, formal employment has lost over 240,000 jobs since Milei's government began, with ongoing challenges in reserves and exchange stability. Experts like Roberto Rojas emphasize the need to accumulate dollars to meet 2026 debt maturities.
The close of 2025 brought mixed signals for Argentina's economy. Salvador Femenia, in an interview with Canal E, explained that year-end sales showed a 1.3% increase compared to 2024, though he described this rebound as “quite discreet and austere.” The average ticket stayed nearly the same, with lower-value purchases but in greater quantity, driven by credit card use amid indebted families and tight limits. “90% of merchants made a great effort with discounts and offers,” Femenia highlighted.
In the labor sector, the year was critical: “In Milei's government so far, more than 240,000 jobs have been lost, at least formally.” Femenia stressed the importance of promoting registered employment to benefit workers and the pension system. Compared to 2024, consumption accumulated a 3.4% gain up to November, on a base of prior deep declines.
Looking to 2026, uncertainties linger due to restrictive monetary measures and political doubts, though the government has strengthened its position in Congress. Femenia emphasized the need for private investment: “Argentina needs private investment to recover activity, and the context must be created.”
Meanwhile, economist Roberto Rojas analyzed the new exchange regime that debuted in 2026. The initial rise in the official dollar could be a first-day overreaction, but the key challenge is building reserves: “The true challenge for the Government is to accumulate the necessary dollars for reserves and also to pay capital and interest on external debt.” Net accumulation via foreign trade is around 3,000 million dollars, after subtracting tourism and interests. For the January 9 maturity, the government arrives tight but has a 7,000 million dollar repo negotiated with banks. Rojas warned that monthly inflation will remain between 2% and 3%, still a grave level for the macroeconomy.
