Democrats Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey won their gubernatorial races despite Republican messaging targeting transgender rights, underscoring signs that such attacks are not decisive with voters.
Voters in two high‑profile gubernatorial contests rejected campaigns centered on anti‑trans rhetoric, electing Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey after weeks of GOP ads and lines of attack on transgender rights.
In Virginia, former U.S. representative Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle‑Sears to become the state’s first female governor. Earle‑Sears’ closing message leaned heavily on transgender issues in schools, including an ad echoing a 2024 Trump spot that ended, “Spanberger is for they/them, not us.” Spanberger largely kept the focus on cost‑of‑living concerns and governance, and won comfortably, according to the Associated Press and contemporaneous reporting. (apnews.com)
Polling before Election Day suggested voters preferred Spanberger’s handling of related policy questions. An October Wason Center (Christopher Newport University) survey found likely voters said Spanberger would do a better job on “transgender policy” by 13 points, and also showed the issue ranking far below the economy and democracy among voter priorities. (cnu.edu)
In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who revived culture‑war themes and aired ads attacking Sherrill over LGBTQ‑inclusive curriculum and policies for transgender students. Sherrill mostly avoided the topic, emphasizing affordability and competence. The Associated Press and other outlets called the race for Sherrill on election night. (apnews.com)
These outcomes align with a broader pattern noted by analysts and advocates that trans‑focused attacks have limited salience with swing voters compared with economic concerns. In Virginia, a Washington Post/Schar School poll in October found only a small share of voters naming policies about transgender students as their top issue, while Spanberger led overall by double digits. (washingtonpost.com)
Ballot results elsewhere reinforce the point. In 2024, New Yorkers approved a constitutional amendment adding protections against discrimination based on gender identity and related categories with roughly 62.5% support—securing a larger share of the vote than Kamala Harris received in the state’s presidential results. Official returns show “Yes” on Proposal 1 at 62.5%, while multiple tallies put Harris’s statewide share in the mid‑50s. (results.elections.ny.gov)
The postelection debate inside the Democratic Party has featured warnings from some figures about the politics of transgender rights. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, for instance, said on his podcast that allowing transgender girls and women to compete in women’s sports is “deeply unfair,” and in October 2025 vetoed SB 418, a bill that would have required insurers to cover, and pharmacies to dispense, a 12‑month supply of prescription hormones at once. Equality California and the governor’s office confirmed the veto. (washingtonpost.com)
At the same time, Republican leaders have escalated policy efforts against transgender care. In early 2025, President Donald Trump issued executive orders directing the federal government to end support for gender‑affirming care for people under 19; federal courts have since blocked enforcement in part while litigation proceeds. (whitehouse.gov)
State‑level restrictions have also proliferated. As of mid‑2024, at least half of U.S. states had enacted laws limiting or prohibiting gender‑affirming care for minors, according to KFF’s policy tracker and subsequent updates by rights groups. (kff.org)
Yet the money and messaging have not guaranteed electoral returns. News coverage last cycle documented tens of millions of dollars in anti‑trans advertising by Republicans; one national analysis put the figure at more than $65 million. The Virginia and New Jersey results suggest voters continue to prioritize economic and governance concerns over culture‑war broadsides. (theguardian.com)
Progressive candidates in deep‑blue contests paired explicit pro‑trans commitments with broad affordability agendas. In New York City’s 2025 cycle, Democrat Zohran Mamdani, who went on to win the mayoralty, proposed a $65 million plan to bolster access to gender‑affirming care—an amount equal to about 0.06% of the city’s roughly $112–116 billion budget—framed within a wider plank on cost of living. (them.us)
Political theorist Judith Butler, in a 2024 El País interview, argued that identity can be a starting point for coalitions, but “you can’t have a politics of identity that is only about identity,” urging parties to connect these rights to people’s interdependent ties. The 2025 gubernatorial results in Virginia and New Jersey appear to reflect that dynamic. (english.elpais.com)
