Brazil's Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) cut the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points to 14.5% per year in a unanimous decision on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The committee adopted a cautious tone due to inflationary risks and external uncertainties, particularly Middle East conflicts. Analysts had expected the move and condition further cuts on new data.
The Copom, led by president Gabriel Galípolo, maintained the gradual pace of interest rate cuts in its April 29 meeting, lowering the Selic from 14.75% to 14.5% per year. The decision was unanimous, despite absences, and the statement emphasized serenity and caution in monetary policy.
The central bank highlighted heightened global uncertainty tied to the depth of Middle East conflicts, with Brent oil prices above $100 and up to $111 on Wednesday. Inflation projections rose: 4.6% for 2026 and 3.5% for 2027, diverging from the 3% target. The dollar improved to R$5, but risks persist with inflation at 4.14% over 12 months to March.
Despite the cut, Brazil holds second place in the global real interest rate ranking at 9.18% per year, behind only Russia (9.57%), according to Portal MoneYou and Lev Intelligence. In nominal terms, it ties with Russia in third place.
Analysts reacted cautiously. Natalie Victal of SulAmérica Investimentos warned of a higher bar for further cuts. José Márcio Camargo of Genial Investimentos forecasts Selic at 13.25% by cycle's end, but data-dependent. Raphael Vieira of Arton Advisors and Flávio Serrano of Banco Bmg reinforced concerns over the external scenario and inflation.
