Egypt's Minister of Planning and Economic Development Ahmed Rostom said the national economy has withstood five major external shocks over the past six years, while delivering positive performance indicators. He spoke during a presentation of Egypt’s economic development plan at an American Chamber of Commerce conference. Rostom highlighted new initiatives to support startups and foster a better business environment.
Ahmed Rostom stated that implementation of several key initiatives will begin immediately following approval of the national investment plan, with further details to be announced in due course. He emphasized the government's intensified focus on entrepreneurship by supporting startups and fostering a more enabling business environment, coordinated at the highest levels under the Deputy Prime Minister and in collaboration with stakeholders.
These initiatives form part of a broader strategy to position Egypt among leading economies in the Middle East and emerging markets, driven by continued structural reforms and expansion of the productive base. In cooperation with the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, the government has developed multiple economic scenarios for growth and inflation to adapt swiftly to global conditions.
Rostom cautioned that sudden geopolitical developments, including regional conflicts and Gulf tensions, can disrupt markets. He described the current global environment as more complex than the 2008 crisis due to its energy market links. Under the baseline scenario, global growth is expected to ease to 3.1% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025, recovering to 3.2% by 2027, with inflation at around 4.4%, moderating to 3.7%.
Global natural gas prices have surged by 160%, and food prices by 2.5%. In a more adverse scenario, oil could reach $110-$150 per barrel, natural gas up 200%, and food prices climb 5% in 2026 and 10% in 2027. Suez Canal revenues have been significantly affected, alongside regional supply chain disruptions like suspended fertilizer and energy shipments, contributing to higher production costs and inflation. Despite headwinds, international institutions project sustained positive growth for Egypt at a moderate pace, with credit rating agencies maintaining a stable to positive outlook.