NFL Week 16 playoff picture: Updated odds and clinching scenarios

Updating our Week 16 preview: The Broncos (12-2) and Rams (11-3) have clinched playoffs, while nine other teams eye berths this weekend. New odds highlight favorites, with Broncos at 73% for AFC's No. 1 seed and near-certainties for many contenders.

Building on yesterday's clinching overview, here are updated probabilities and key Week 16 matchups (all times ET):

AFC Highlights

  • Denver Broncos (12-2) vs. Jaguars (Sun, 4:05 p.m.): 73% No. 1 seed odds (The Athletic). Clinch West with win + Chargers L/T; top seed needs win + Chargers/Bills L/T.
  • New England Patriots (11-3) at Ravens (Sun, 8:20 p.m.): 70% East, 99% playoffs (NFL.com). Clinch with win/T or Colts/Texans setbacks.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) at Broncos: 60% South, 97% playoffs.
  • Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) at Cowboys: 93% playoffs, 9% division.
  • Buffalo Bills (10-4) at Browns: 27% East, near-100% playoffs.
  • Others: Texans (9-5, 98% playoffs), Steelers (8-6, 60%), Colts (8-6, 8-16%), Ravens (7-7, 34% North).

NFC Highlights

  • Los Angeles Rams (11-3) vs. Seahawks (Thu, 8:15 p.m.): 53% No. 1 seed.
  • Chicago Bears (10-4) vs. Packers (Sat, 8:30 p.m.): 52% North, 84% playoffs.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Commanders (Sat, 5 p.m.): 99% playoffs; clinch East with win/Cowboys L.
  • Seattle Seahawks (11-3) at Rams: 30% West.
  • San Francisco 49ers (10-4) at Colts (Mon): 99% playoffs.
  • Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) at Bears: 43% North.
  • Others: Buccaneers (7-7, 77%), Panthers (7-7, 24%), Lions (8-6, 27%), Cowboys (6-7-1, <1%).

Full standings and paths align with prior coverage; odds reflect latest models.

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