NFL Week 16 playoff picture: Updated odds and clinching scenarios

Updating our Week 16 preview: The Broncos (12-2) and Rams (11-3) have clinched playoffs, while nine other teams eye berths this weekend. New odds highlight favorites, with Broncos at 73% for AFC's No. 1 seed and near-certainties for many contenders.

Building on yesterday's clinching overview, here are updated probabilities and key Week 16 matchups (all times ET):

AFC Highlights

  • Denver Broncos (12-2) vs. Jaguars (Sun, 4:05 p.m.): 73% No. 1 seed odds (The Athletic). Clinch West with win + Chargers L/T; top seed needs win + Chargers/Bills L/T.
  • New England Patriots (11-3) at Ravens (Sun, 8:20 p.m.): 70% East, 99% playoffs (NFL.com). Clinch with win/T or Colts/Texans setbacks.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) at Broncos: 60% South, 97% playoffs.
  • Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) at Cowboys: 93% playoffs, 9% division.
  • Buffalo Bills (10-4) at Browns: 27% East, near-100% playoffs.
  • Others: Texans (9-5, 98% playoffs), Steelers (8-6, 60%), Colts (8-6, 8-16%), Ravens (7-7, 34% North).

NFC Highlights

  • Los Angeles Rams (11-3) vs. Seahawks (Thu, 8:15 p.m.): 53% No. 1 seed.
  • Chicago Bears (10-4) vs. Packers (Sat, 8:30 p.m.): 52% North, 84% playoffs.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Commanders (Sat, 5 p.m.): 99% playoffs; clinch East with win/Cowboys L.
  • Seattle Seahawks (11-3) at Rams: 30% West.
  • San Francisco 49ers (10-4) at Colts (Mon): 99% playoffs.
  • Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) at Bears: 43% North.
  • Others: Buccaneers (7-7, 77%), Panthers (7-7, 24%), Lions (8-6, 27%), Cowboys (6-7-1, <1%).

Full standings and paths align with prior coverage; odds reflect latest models.

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Only the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams have secured playoff berths through 15 weeks of the 2025 NFL season. Week 16 offers clinching opportunities for nine additional teams across both conferences. Scenarios depend on wins, losses, and ties in key matchups.

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