An AtlasIntel analysis shows President Lula holding a solid voter base but struggling to exceed 50% in a potential 2026 second-round matchup. Director Yuri Sanches points to antipetismo's influence and the right's need to unify to prevent a first-round PT victory. Advances by figures like Flávio Bolsonaro indicate the normalization of bolsonarismo in polls.
Analysis of electoral polls for 2026
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva enters the 2026 elections with an established pattern: a high floor of voting intentions but a limited ceiling, rarely exceeding 50% in second-round simulations. This assessment comes from AtlasIntel's Political Risk Director, Yuri Sanches, in an interview on VEJA's Ponto de Vista program.
Sanches explains that Lula typically holds around 49% of voting intentions in second-round scenarios, reflecting PT voters' loyalty and persistent antipetismo. In the 2022 election, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro 50.9% to 49%, a narrow result illustrating this tight limit. "The president appears relatively more comfortable in scenarios against candidates identified with bolsonarismo," Sanches states, noting that against names like the Bolsonaro family, the battle for undecideds is smaller.
However, against less polarized governors like Ronaldo Caiado, Ratinho Júnior, Eduardo Leite, or Romeu Zema, Lula stays at 49% to 50%, with rising undecideds who may shift to the opposition. Even in the government's best moment, Lula reached 52% against Tarcísio de Freitas, reinforcing the low ceiling.
On the right, Flávio Bolsonaro's poll gains represent a "normalization" of his candidacy, returning to bolsonarismo's historical base of 25% to 30%. His sluggish start stemmed from an atypical launch, with family noises and poor articulation. Lula remains stable at 48% to 49%, aided by opposition fragmentation.
Sanches warns that right-wing unification is key to avoiding a first-round Lula win, where he polls 48% to 49%. Factors like abstention, blanks, and nulls could be decisive. A scenario with two strong right-wing candidates, like Tarcísio and Flávio, is unlikely, opening space for alternatives like Zema or Ratinho Júnior.
