A U.S. military incursion captured Nicolás Maduro, but analysis shows a tactical success without strategic gains. Goals to restore democracy, control oil, and displace China in the region remain unmet. One week after the event, long-term impacts are in question.
The U.S. military operation in Venezuela ended with the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his transfer to American justice, described as a surgical strike with no U.S. casualties that met its immediate goal. Yet beyond this tactical victory, the strategic outcomes are disappointing.
Key aims for Donald Trump included restoring democracy, securing control of Venezuelan oil, displacing Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere, and boosting domestic political support. Venezuela claims reserves exceeding 300 billion barrels, the world's largest, though independent estimates place them at around 80 billion, with uncertainties about recoverability. The low-quality crude, deteriorated infrastructure, and technological lag raise extraction costs, making investments unappealing amid a global energy transition.
In a meeting last Friday, U.S. oil executives responded cautiously to Trump's overtures, pointing to political instability, fragile institutions, and risks in a world cutting emissions. Politically, Trump's New York Times statement suggesting the U.S. might oversee Venezuela for many years has alarmed voters weary of prolonged interventions, echoing his pledge to end 'endless wars.' This could hurt Republicans in the November midterms and crack party unity.
Removing Maduro has not dismantled the Chavista state, and the new government under Delcy Rodríguez risks being perceived as a Washington puppet, potentially sparking internal fractures, instability, and violence. Geopolitically, the intervention has not curbed Chinese influence, Latin America's top trade partner; a recent meeting between the Chinese ambassador and Rodríguez signals ongoing ties. This may fuel anti-U.S. nationalism and drive regional countries toward Beijing, achieving the reverse of intended goals.
One week after the action, Trump secured a tactical win but appears to be losing the strategic war.
